A chaotic fourth quarter nearly caused the Oklahoma City Thunder to lose Game 1 in front of their home fans.
But thanks to some mistakes by the Pelicans late in the game and a huge shot by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the final moments, OKC fended off New Orleans and won Game 1 of the first round of the best-of-seven NBA playoff series. won.
Still, Thunder fans should be concerned heading into Game 2 on Wednesday. The Pelicans’ defensive scheme threw OKC off track in Game 1, including properly countering the stolen 3s.
Additionally, Zion Williamson (hamstring) has indicated that a return at some point in the playoffs is realistic, so the Thunder will have to deal with that before he recovers.
Will the Thunder win Game 2 or will New Orleans continue to make this a competitive series? Let’s analyze the game and make your choices.
Pelicans vs. Thunder odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| pelicans | +7.5 (-110) | +245 | o211.5 (-112) |
| Thunder | -7.5 (-110) | -300 | u211.5 (-108) |
Pelicans vs. Thunder predictions
(9:30 p.m. ET, TNT)
In Game 1, New Orleans was successful in limiting the Thunder’s best offensive ability (3-point shooting), holding OKC to just 31.3% of 32 shooting from deep.
New Orleans also outscored the Thunder by eight points thanks to a masterclass from Jonas Valanciunas. Valanciunas only scored 20 boards in the 29 minutes he played.
The most obvious concern for the Thunder is that the Pelicans (who had the second-lowest 3-point percentage against them this season) have been unusually good at getting from the 3-point line.
Additionally, OKC was unable to play Valanciunas off the floor. That means the Pels will continue to dominate in the paint and on the glass.
Unless rookie Chet Holmgren can stretch Valanciunas to the 3-point line and consistently beat him off the dribble, the 265-pound New Orleans center, who outweighs Holmgren by 60 pounds, will likely play more games. It could give him time and keep him in control of the paint.
Another concern is that Gilgeous-Alexander struggled against Herb Jones, one of the league’s best perimeter wing defenders. SGA always scores points, but Jones has made him relatively inefficient.
If Jones continues to disrupt SGA’s offensive flow, it will be difficult for him to put pressure on the rim or get his feet in the paint to draw other opponents, resulting in clean kickout 3s. He’s going to have to shoot the point.
On the other hand, it seems highly unlikely that the Pelicans are shooting a putrid 38.5% from the floor and 28.3% from behind the arc for the second straight game.
Williams’ absence creates problems for the Pels offensively, but they have enough weapons to improve their efficiency from Game 1.
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Pelicans vs. Thunder picks
New Orleans is a great road team, boasting a 28-15 record away from the Smoothie King Center.
That grit and toughness was on full display in Game 1, and the Pels can continue to make this series an exciting one.
If we want to play it safe, we can take 7.5 points from them, but with their improved offensive play, I think they have a good chance to steal the win.
