I feel like I’m going crazy.
How do the Purdue Boilermakers, with two-time National Player of the Year Zach Eady, score 6.5 points against other college basketball teams?
Obviously, UConn is the best team in the country and one of the best teams in the history of the sport.
But Purdue is the second-best team in the nation. And I don’t think anyone outside of the betting market would say the Huskies should build on more than two possessions in the national championship game.
KenPom projects UConn as a 3-point favorite. BartTorvik projects the Huskies as his 2.8 point favorites. Haslamemetrics projects them as 2.3-point favorites. His PRO projection on Action Network makes him a 3.5 point favorite. The ShotQualityBets model is the most bullish on UConn, predicting the Huskies as a 4.2-point favorite.
UW is historically good, but so is Purdue.
Donovan Clingan is perhaps the nation’s best post-up defender (-.29 PPP allowed, 23rd nationally), but Eadie has been an unstoppable post-up paint force for two seasons. Clingan may not be ready for his frequent post-ups and re-posts — the Boilermakers run 18 post-up sets per game, and the Huskies have run more than 14 in any game this season. I haven’t followed it.
This year’s Purdue team is better than last year’s team because these Boilermakers are used to setting ball screens. Braden Smith has become a strong initiator and finisher in the pick-and-roll.
Specifically, Smith excels at pulling up in the midrange from high-ball screen sets, which will be crucial in defeating college’s overwhelming drop-coverage defenses.
The Huskies switch everything up to put pressure on the perimeter, denying 3-point shots while keeping ball handlers focused on Clingan hanging toward the rim. The scheme invites opposing guards to take mid-range shots, and UConn is below the national average in defending those mid-range shots (0.79 PPP allowed, 196th nationally).
Purdue’s guards are comfortable lifting in the mid-range (0.83 PPP, 66th nationally), with Smith leading the offense this year with 34 completions on 92 attempts.
I’ll admit that it will be difficult, perhaps impossible, to stop UW’s offense because of Eady’s limited mobility, especially for Purdue as they struggle to defend their secondary motion actions. The Huskies’ pattern motion offense is built around these secondary scoring actions.
However, Purdue can win this game with their offensive power.
The Boilermakers will relentlessly pursue Eadie, but it’s unclear if anyone, including Clingan, will be up to the challenge.
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If Clingan can perfect his post-up set, Smith will be able to attack the midrange with high pick-and-rolls and outscore Clingan’s drops.
If Clingan can’t handle Eady, he could end up in foul trouble, which would bring in Samson Johnson. UW would then start hedging hard against Smith’s ball screen attacks, building a numerical advantage on the perimeter and opening up Purdue’s 3-point shooting opportunities.
It’s impossible to stop UW, but Purdue should be able to score enough points to hang on for 40 minutes. The Boilermakers are a good basketball team with the best players in the country and enough firepower to compete with anyone, and giving them his seven points in a college basketball game is ridiculous.
Recommended value: Purdue +6.5 (-105, FanDuel)
