Cuba Faces Ongoing Demographic Collapse
The Castro regime has officially acknowledged that Cuba’s demographic decline will persist until at least 2025, driven by alarmingly low birth rates and the emigration of around 250,000 Cubans.
For nine consecutive years, Cuba has grappled with demographic issues, including a significant number of Cubans escaping the oppressive regime, record low birth rates, and an aging population—factors that have, quite ironically, been highlighted by the government itself. Notably, Cuba now has the oldest demographic in Latin America and the Caribbean.
This week, the National Institute of Statistics and Information (ONEI) released fresh demographic data, which reveals the precarious state of the population. By the end of 2025, ONEI predicts that Cuba’s population will shrink to approximately 9,434,593—down 313,414 from the 9.7 million recorded in 2024.
Reports suggest that back in 2017, the population was over 11.2 million, indicating a decline of at least 16 percent in recent years. Some independent analyses even suggest a possible loss of up to 24 percent of the population during the same timeframe. A Madrid-based outlet, Diario de Cuba, even claims the true numbers could be even lower than what the Castro government has admitted.
According to the same outlet, ONEI’s statistics fail to fully address the demographic crisis, especially considering that most emigrants are young adults aged 20 to 40, which further complicates potential areas for population growth. Moreover, the regime classifies all Cubans who remain in the country for 180 days in any given year, alongside newborns, as part of the “effective population.”
Meanwhile, an independent report indicated that in 2025, 313,414 Cubans are set to depart, with 72,056 returning. Effectively, this leaves about 245,264 Cubans who permanently left in 2024, a figure that aligns closely with the over 307,000 who left the previous year and the more than 330,000 in 2023.
Notably, Havana alone saw a loss of 98,773 residents, while regions like Matanzas, Villa Clara, Santiago de Cuba, and Camaguey each experienced roughly 20,000 departures. Other cities, such as Holguín and Cienfuegos, are expected to lose between 10,000 and 15,000 residents by 2025.
Although this emigration significantly contributes to the demographic crisis, it’s not the only factor. The ONEI also reported a natural growth rate of -7.1 per 1,000 people, indicating that the population is shrinking even before factoring in emigration.
Declining birth rates worsen the situation. The report noted only 68,064 births in 2025, the lowest on record for decades. In contrast, deaths reached at least 136,214, representing a stark imbalance where deaths outnumber births by more than double. The infant mortality rate stands at 9.9 per 1,000 live births.
What’s equally concerning is that Cuba’s total fertility rate is at 1.29 children per woman, marking the second consecutive year of record lows, a figure acknowledged by the government to be the lowest since 1958.
The statistics also reveal that 26.7 percent of Cuba’s remaining population is now over the age of 60, solidifying its status as the oldest country in the region. Moreover, the statistics office admitted that over the past five years, the country has lost more than 1.25 million people of working age.
