TEL AVIV, Israel — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s grip on power faces a test Wednesday, as President Isaac Herzog starts meeting with leaders of parties elected to the 26th Knesset. After the consultations, Herzog will decide which lawmaker gets the first chance to form a government.
The final results, released Friday by Israel’s Central Elections Committee, gave Netanyahu’s bloc 53 seats in the 120-seat parliament. The opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot won 48. A government needs the support of at least 61 lawmakers.
Netanyahu wrote on X Monday that Israelis did not want a government relying on Ra’am and the Joint List, which he accused of supporting terrorism and rejecting Israel’s existence as a Jewish state.
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He argued that most Jewish voters had chosen Likud as the largest party and wanted him to lead the next government. Netanyahu said he hoped to form a broad coalition with his allies and any other party that did not support terrorism, adding that he was open to discussions.
The two predominantly Arab parties he criticized, Ra’am and the Joint List, won 19 seats between them, a record combined result that could give them significant influence in government negotiations.
A Joint List source said the alliance was likely to recommend Eisenkot to Herzog as the first person asked to form a government. If both Arab parties backed him, his nomination would have the support of parties representing more than 61 seats.
The lawmaker chosen by Herzog will have 28 days to assemble a government. The president can extend that deadline by up to two weeks.
Consultations are scheduled in order of party size. Herzog will begin with Religious Zionism-Zehut and Shas, which each have six seats, followed by Yisrael Beiteinu, with seven.
On Thursday, he is due to meet United Torah Judaism and Otzma Yehudit, both with seven seats, then The Democrats and Ra’am, with eight each. Meetings with the Joint List, BeYachad, Yashar and Likud will follow; those parties won 11, 12, 21 and 27 seats, respectively.
Amir Oren, a commentator on defense and government affairs, said Herzog is legally free to choose whom he wants to nominate. In practice, Oren expects the president to select the candidate backed by parties that together hold a majority of Knesset seats.
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“He must then task Eisenkot with forming the next government,” Oren said. “That doesn’t mean Eisenkot will succeed. If he fails, he will have to return the mandate to the president.”
Putting together a coalition with 61 seats could prove difficult for Eisenkot, given the differences among opposition parties. BeYachad leader Naftali Bennett and Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Liberman are unlikely to join a government that depends on the Joint List, whose positions on Palestine and Zionism they oppose.
A minority government, with Arab parties supporting it from outside the coalition, is another possibility. Israel has not formed a minority government immediately after an election, though parties have supported governments from outside a coalition during a Knesset term. In Netanyahu’s current term, for example, an ultra-Orthodox party left the coalition over military conscription but continued backing the government from outside.
Religious Zionism-Zehut, Otzma Yehudit and Shas each said Tuesday night that they would recommend Netanyahu to Herzog.
Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, said Bennett and Liberman’s recent endorsement of Eisenkot appeared to make a national unity government less likely.
Still, Diker said Netanyahu, Eisenkot, Bennett and former Defense Minister Liberman should look for a way to work together, citing the prospect of a major confrontation involving Iran, Israel and the wider Western world.
The timing adds pressure. The new Knesset is set to be sworn in on Nov. 10, and its members are expected to begin organizing committees and moving legislation forward. Netanyahu and his ministers will remain in office in the meantime, carrying on their duties under the new parliament’s oversight.
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Diker said Netanyahu’s opponents were trying to remove him from office, pointing to discussions about replacing the Knesset speaker. He added that lawmakers could then pursue legislation in a parliament where Arab parties hold 19 seats, a situation he said would be difficult for Netanyahu.
Oren raised another concern: political limits on what a caretaker government can do militarily. Those constraints could complicate a renewed conflict with Iran, even if U.S. President Donald Trump were to initiate action, he said.
Former Knesset member Dov Lipman also expects Eisenkot to get the first opportunity to form a government. But, he said, many Israelis would prefer a unity coalition centered on Likud, Yashar and BeYachad, possibly joined by smaller parties.
Lipman said Eisenkot might first ask Likud to join a government under his leadership, a proposal Likud would reject. Eisenkot would then face a difficult choice, since Liberman is unlikely to serve in a government alongside Arab parties.
“Eisenkot will likely fail to form a government, after which the mandate will pass to Netanyahu, who will also likely fail,” Lipman said.
If both attempts fail, a 21-day window would open in which any Knesset member could try to form a government with the backing of at least 61 lawmakers. At that point, Eisenkot might agree to serve under Netanyahu for two years to avoid another election, Lipman suggested.
Gideon Rahat, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute, said Netanyahu would need to make concessions to convince opposition leaders he would keep his promises. They may be wary after the failed power-sharing deal Netanyahu made in 2020 with Benny Gantz, then leader of the Blue and White party.
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Under that agreement, Netanyahu was to serve as prime minister for 18 months, with Gantz as alternate prime minister and defense minister, before taking over as premier on Nov. 17, 2021. The deal fell apart when the government missed a December 2020 deadline to pass a state budget. The Knesset was dissolved automatically, triggering another election, and Gantz never became prime minister.
Rahat said Israel’s 1984–1988 national unity government offered a possible model. Israel was then still involved in the Lebanon War, with troops stationed there, while the economy faced a deep crisis and annual inflation topped 400%. Likud and Labor formed a coalition under a rotation agreement: Shimon Peres served as prime minister for two years, followed by Yitzhak Shamir for two.
A unity government could attract broad public support, Rahat said, though difficult issues would remain. These include freezing Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul, establishing an investigation into Oct. 7 as opposition parties want, and agreeing on how Netanyahu would eventually leave office.
On security and economic matters, unity governments can work well, Rahat said. But once the biggest issues are settled, he added, the partners often begin fighting among themselves—and the arrangement can lose its appeal.
