Recent migration out of Pennsylvania and migration between counties could make the 2024 matchup between President Biden and former President Trump even closer than in 2020 in critical battleground states, new census data shows. Shown in analysis.
“Uneven patterns of immigration inflows and outflows are pushing the close 2020 presidential election closer to 2024,” said Burwood Yost, director of the Floyd Institute Public Opinion Research Center at Franklin and Marshall College. There is a possibility.”
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In the 2020 presidential election, Biden defeated Trump by less than 100,000 votes, winning the state 50% to 48.8%.
President Biden and former President Trump (Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images)
Heading into 2024, the Keystone State is equally critical given its particularly high proportion of manufacturing workers, a demographic that both sides have focused their lobbying efforts on in the early months of the election year. is expected to play a vital role.
Yost noted that census data released earlier this month showed a net increase in population of about 4,500 people in counties won by Trump since the last census was taken in 2020. For counties won by Biden, the total loss was more than 45,000.
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Overall, Pennsylvania has seen a decline in population since 2020 and the creation of the Census Bureau. press release Philadelphia County has even been highlighted as one of the most declining counties in the United States.
Philadelphia skyline on January 28, 2023. (Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
“The biggest losses at the county level were Pittsburgh, Allegheny County and Philadelphia, and those are two big centers of support for Mr. Biden,” Yost said in an interview on Fox News Digital. Told.
“And will that affect his ability to win by large margins in those counties? That’s the real question,” he said.
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President Trump’s press secretary, Caroline Leavitt, said in an exclusive statement to FOX News Digital: “Joe Biden has a job approval rating of just 35% and is having a tough time in his home state of Pennsylvania. Rising gas prices. “We are caught between surging crime, failed Democratic policies that are crushing families,” he said. In the corner, it’s no wonder Pennsylvanians across the commonwealth have increasingly rejected failed Biden policies and supported President Trump. ”
Former President Trump enters the Erie Insurance Arena for a political rally on July 29, 2023 in Erie, Pennsylvania. (Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)
Yost stressed that he could not say for certain whether migration patterns within and outside the state would be detrimental to Biden, but explained that it is certainly a possibility, especially in what is expected to be a close race.
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The director noted that those who left the Philadelphia area were “most likely to end up in the suburbs surrounding Philadelphia,” which also lean Democratic. But people leaving Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County are “moving to areas that voted heavily for Trump.”
Are they taking their voting habits with them? he posed.
In a new poll this month, Biden’s approval rating has fallen to 36%, with 61% disapproving of his job as president. (Hannah Baier/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“Was it for work? Was it for cheap housing? Who knows?” Yost continued.
He also noted that Biden’s near-record low approval ratings “by themselves” could be an obstacle to re-election, according to Yost. “The demographic changes that have occurred in the state since 2020 do not make this challenge any less difficult,” he wrote.
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In a new poll this month, Biden’s approval rating has fallen to 36%, with 61% disapproving of his job as president.
According to the latest Fox News poll, Trump and Biden are in a virtual dead heat in Pennsylvania. Of all votes cast, 49% chose Trump and 47% chose Biden, which was particularly within the poll’s margin of error.
Get the latest on the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more with Fox News Digital’s Election Hub.
