of Latest Polls The Gallup poll revealed a surprising shift in partisan affiliation that could prove a major issue for Democrats in the November election.
The poll found that more Americans identify as Republicans than Democrats, and support has shifted significantly more toward the Republican side since the last presidential election.
“If the polls change between now and the final results, as they have in past years, Donald Trump will actually win.”
Since 2004, more Americans identify as Democrats than Republicans, but in the latest poll, 48% of Americans identify as Republicans and just 45% identify as Democrats.
This marks a significant change from 2020, when President Joe Biden won the presidential election and 48% of respondents said they supported the Democrat, while 43% said they supported the Republican.
That means there's been a total of 8 percentage point swings in favor of Republicans in just the past four years.
And this is especially bad for Democrats, because Biden won the Electoral College by a slim margin despite having a net positive 5 percentage points in partisan support.
“Party affiliation and voting are strong predictors of an individual's vote choice, and the vast majority of people with a party identification or inclination will vote for the candidate of their preferred party,” explained Jeffrey Jones, a senior editor at Gallup.
“In years when the margins were smaller, such as 2004 and 2016, Republicans won the electoral vote even if they didn't win the popular vote,” he added.
The findings also back up a warning message from pollsters like CNN's Harry Enten, who say Democrats need to make big gains in the polls to overcome the surge in support for former President Donald Trump in the past two elections.
“The bottom line is this,” Enten said. “If you're a Kamala Harris fan and you want to pop the champagne bottle and pop the cork, don't do that. Donald Trump is putting a lot of effort into this race, and if the polls change like they have in the past few years between now and the final results, Donald Trump will actually win.”
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