Bitcoin Approaches Key Milestone; Can the Uptrend Persist?

Bitcoin (BTC) is nearing a significant double candle, just shy of its all-time high. The question remains: will the bullish trend hold?

• The liquidity situation in the Bitcoin order book is becoming increasingly complex as we approach monthly and quarterly closes, setting the stage for potential price swings.

• BTC/USD is set to conclude June at $104,630, aiming for the highest monthly close ever.

• This past week has been relatively quiet for macroeconomic data, shifting attention toward the Federal Reserve following Powell’s testimony before Congress.

• Bitcoin appears to be suffering from a “significant demand deficit,” where the buying momentum falls short compared to the amount held by long-term holders.

• Could Bitcoin be in a three-month bull market?

BTC Price Volatility Surges as the “Game” Resumes

After a timely jump on Sunday, BTC/USD is on track to potentially close the week with strong gains that could surpass $109,000. Although this goal ultimately fell short, the trading range remains fluid as June and Q2 wrap up.

By Monday, BTC/USD had managed to close the latest “gap” created in the CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market over the weekend.

$ BTC opened in a small CME gap below. Recently, we’ve seen all gaps fill at the start of the week, so keep an eye on this area. pic.twitter.com/qcxbugshuo

– Daan Crypto Trades (@daancrypto) June 30, 2025

Trader Skew, while analyzing the end of the week around $108,400, attributed some last-minute price action to a “predatory” algorithmic trading bot.

“The game has been played here, and we’re looking at the flow,” he remarked.

In these “games,” an observation noted a pump in Bitcoin’s value that liquidated a $12 million BTC short position before eventually taking profits.

“This same entity pumped BTC two weeks ago, and the next day, BTC saw a sharp drop,” added fellow trader Bitbull.

Liquidity manipulation, particularly by large traders, has created artificial highs and lows in the market recently.

Unique Monthly Close Approaches

Two additional candles are drawing attention as BTC/USD has yet to hit record highs in its weekly closures.

The monthly close for June will also dictate the overall performance of Bitcoin’s price in Q2.

June has been a volatile month full of headline-driven movements, but it’s trending positively, according to monitoring resources.

Traders seem hopeful that this month might mark a pivot toward a more substantial recovery.

Just 17 hours left to lock in a record-breaking end of the month. Last month saw highs break January’s, and I think July could be even better.#bitcoin pic.twitter.com/uashi9vt5q

– jelle (@cryptojellenl) June 30, 2025

To achieve the highest monthly close ever, BTC’s price must align at approximately $104,630, which translates to needing a buffer of about 2.9% decline.

Volatility in the last moments may hinge on the liquidity of the exchange order book.

According to Monitoring Resource Material Indicator, there are several short-term price magnets both upward and downward near current levels.

“Ask liquidity is currently concentrated in the $108,000 to $110,000 range, while bids are present around $98,000,” as detailed in summaries shared by Binance’s order book liquidity data.

Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, indicated that despite the promising potential for record-breaking candles, another liquidity cleanse could be on the horizon.

Non-Farm Payrolls and Rate Cut Speculations

The upcoming Independence Day holiday wraps up what seems to be a calm week for macroeconomic data.

This offers traders in cryptocurrencies and other risk assets a pause, particularly amid stark contrasts between Federal Reserve policies and political sentiment.

Though many of the Fed officials and Chairman Jerome Powell remain firm against rate cuts, U.S. President Trump has been vocally critical, calling Powell “silly” and suggesting that the Fed is lagging in starting a new rate-cutting cycle.

Powell stated, “For now, we are well positioned to wait and see how economic trends develop before altering policy,” during his congressional testimony last week.

The market seems to barely expect a cut during the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting later in July, although the odds of a 0.25% cut in September are pegged at 75% according to recent data from CME Group.

While Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Bowman has hinted he may support July cuts if economic indicators allow, the main focus this week will turn to non-farm payroll data expected on Thursday.

Concerns Over Demand Deficit

Long-term Bitcoin holders are growing increasingly anxious as the second quarter winds down.

Research indicates that reviving dormant coins, alongside freshly mined ones, now surpasses the demand from buyers.

As noted in a blog post from the Onchain Analytics platform Cryptoquant, this situation is being described as a “critical demand deficit.”

“The influx of coins from miners and active long-term holders into the market is outpacing new buyer interest,” writes contributor CrazzyBlockk.

“This is a bearish trend for two reasons: it heightens available supply and puts downward pressure on prices. Sales from long-term holders, often seen as ‘smart money,’ indicate that seasoned investors may believe we are hitting local peaks.”

Cryptoquant’s demand metrics, which account for long-term holders and newly mined coins, have shown negative figures over a rolling 30-day period.

The last time apparent demand turned negative was when BTC/USD was emerging from a low point below $75,000 back in April.

“Consequently, the market appears fragile, and any price hikes from here might struggle against the influx of available supply, potentially leaving support weaker than anticipated,” concluded Cryptoquant.

“While not definitive, this on-chain signal strongly suggests that we should expect a period of caution until demand shows clear signs of recovery.”

Ticking Clock for Bitcoin’s Bull Market

Bitcoin’s price movement might be just months away from peaking in the next bull market.

Traders Reference Historical Price Cycles

Recent insights from traders and analysts, including Rect Capital, point to historic price patterns, suggesting blow-off tops might be nearer than expected.

“If Bitcoin peaks in the bull market in September or October 2025, following historical trends…” noted in one of several recent posts.

“We’re just two or three months away.”

Rect Capital highlighted that in 2024, BTC/USD had reached a new all-time high before the anticipated April block grant, earlier than thought. Typically, historical cycles show that peaks will arrive on schedule.

In 2024, Bitcoin saw a 260-day cycle of acceleration that brought it back to a new high following the half cycle. Since then, that speed of recovery has stalled, he mentioned.

“What if Bitcoin is set for a slower cycle?”

If this slowdown occurs, BTC/USD may compensate for lost time with significant gains and return to price discovery sooner rather than later.

“Admittedly, Bitcoin’s early price discovery has stretched longer than usual, but it tends to exhibit varied performance throughout different phases of the cycle,” concluded Rect Capital.

“Thus, if Bitcoin accelerates into parabolic rises, it could drastically curtail the ‘cycle expansion’ witnessed in recent months.”