Super El Niño Forecasted for the U.S.
Recent long-term forecasts from Europe suggest a complete certainty of a Super El Niño developing, which may lead to reduced hurricane activity and potentially wetter conditions during the fall and winter in the southern U.S.
The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has published a May forecast that significantly boosts the chances of experiencing the strongest El Niño ever recorded by November.
Previously, in March, forecasts only extended through September, showing roughly a 55% likelihood of hitting that Super El Niño mark.
Predicting such a high-magnitude El Niño this early in the season means it could be an event that people reflect on for years, according to the FOX Prediction Center.
Usually, a strong El Niño results in diminished hurricane activity in the Atlantic while increasing it in the Eastern Pacific.
That said, the impacts of this significant El Niño might not be immediately apparent, as ECMWF hasn’t indicated a major decrease in forecasted hurricanes for the current season just yet.
The latest forecasts predict 13 named storms and six hurricanes this season, which is slightly below the season average of 14 named storms and seven hurricanes as per the FOX Prediction Center.
Closer to the continental U.S., the ECMWF forecasts normal activity along with higher-than-normal rainfall for the northern Gulf Coast.
They also expect water temperatures in the Atlantic to rise above average for most of the season.
Interestingly, even with the anticipated El Niño, overall tropical activity in most parts of the Atlantic Major Development Region is projected to be below average. This suggests that while El Niño might suppress Atlantic tropical systems, it won’t eliminate all of them, according to the FOX Prediction Center.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season is set to kick off on May 15, while the Atlantic season starts on June 1.
With this updated forecast, models indicate above-average rainfall is anticipated across the South.
The FOX Prediction Center also believes that the upcoming winter could be beneficial for the drought-affected Southeast.
