A new poll taken after last week's debate gives Vice President Kamala Harris a three-point lead over former President Trump in Pennsylvania, the most crucial of the seven key battleground states in the general election.
According to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll conducted Wednesday through Saturday (September 11-14), Democratic presidential candidate Harris is leading Republican candidate Trump among Pennsylvania voters, 49% to 46%.
Among 500 respondents, the vice president's lead over the former president is within the poll's margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
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Vice President Kamala Harris (R) and former President Donald Trump shake hands during the presidential debate in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Tuesday, September 10, 2024. Photo by Doug Mills/The New York Times/Bloomberg via Getty Images (Getty Images)
The survey was conducted before the second assassination attempt on President Trump on Sunday, and the poll was released on Monday, 50 days until the Nov. 5 Election.
Both Harris and Trump have made multiple stops in Pennsylvania this summer — along with Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada, states that narrowly decided the 2020 presidential election between Trump and Biden — and these seven states will likely decide whether Harris or Trump wins the 2024 presidential election.
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But Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes at stake, is the largest of the key battleground states, and while the campaign and allied super PACs are pouring money into all seven states, much more of it is going to spot advertising. Pennsylvania Both campaigns are spending more to secure upcoming airtime in the Keystone State than in any other battleground state, according to figures from AdImpact, the nation's top ad tracking firm.
Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally at Bojangles' Coliseum, Thursday, Sept. 12, 2024, in Charlotte, North Carolina. (AP Photo/Jacqueline Martin)
Pennsylvania, along with Michigan and Wisconsin, are three Rust Belt states that make up the Democratic Party's so-called “Blue Wall.”
The party had reliably won all three states for 25 years, until Trump narrowly won them in the 2016 election and took the White House.
Four years later, in 2020, Biden narrowly won all three states, again giving Democrats the advantage and defeating Trump.
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In addition to her statewide lead over Trump, two separate USA Today/Suffolk University polls conducted after the debate in Erie and Northampton counties – two surveys that have historically been indicators of which presidential candidate will win Pennsylvania – showed the vice president leading by mid-single digits.
All three surveys show a widening gender gap in Harris's favor, giving her an overall advantage over Trump.
Republican presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump leaves a campaign event at the Central Wisconsin Airport in Mosinee, Wisconsin, on September 7, 2024. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Statewide polls have Harris leading Trump by 17 points among female voters, but only 12 points ahead of the vice president among men. Harris holds even larger leads among women in Erie and Northampton counties.
“This is the height of female advantage,” Dave Paleologos, director of political studies at Suffolk University, told Fox News. “In all three data points, the gap among women is nearly double Trump's advantage over men.”
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The USA Today/Suffolk poll is the first conducted in Pennsylvania following the debate in Philadelphia. A CBS News on-site poll in early September, a week before the debate, had found the election a tie in the Keystone State.
“This is the one state where you don't see a lot of people losing the presidential election and then winning,” Mark Harris, a longtime Pittsburgh-based national Republican strategist and ad creator, told Fox News Digital earlier this month. “This is clearly the epicenter.”
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