Medicaid Cuts Impact Assessment
A recent report indicates that cuts to Medicaid outlined in President Donald Trump’s domestic policy bills could result in over 1,000 deaths annually. The study also suggests nearly 100,000 hospitalizations might occur each year, potentially causing up to 1.6 million individuals to delay seeking necessary care.
This outlook appears to contradict statements made by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Secretary of Health and Human Services, who asserted, “We’re not going to cut Medicaid, and no one dies from this.”
The Department of Health and Human Services has not responded to requests for clarification.
The findings from this week’s study resonate with an earlier analysis published in the Internal Medicine Chronicles in June, which highlighted the risk of thousands of preventable fatalities due to delayed care.
Medicaid is co-funded by state and federal governments, and Trump’s legislation—described as “a big, beautiful bill”—proposes a reduction of approximately $1 trillion from the program, primarily influenced by job requirements and cuts in federal funding. Most of these changes are slated not to take effect until 2027 or 2028.
The current report’s predictions are based on estimates from the Congressional Budget Office, which suggests that modifications to Medicaid could lead to 7.6 million Americans losing their health insurance by 2034.
Dr. Sanjay Basu, Chief Medical Officer of Waymark and the report’s author, emphasizes that delays in seeking care could have severe consequences for many, including increased rates of illness and hospitalization. He noted, “People tend to worry about costs and compensation,” which can lead to delays in care until hospitalization or, worse, death.
Basu believes the report’s forecasts might actually be conservative, particularly since they do not account for possible changes in the Affordable Care Act. Furthermore, it assumes that states will manage to implement necessary adjustments to their Medicaid programs within a two- to three-year timeframe.
In a worst-case scenario, the report estimates that deaths could double, reaching around 2,000, with as many as 2.5 million people facing delayed care.
“This situation is quite complex for states, and the timelines are not that distant,” Basu remarked. “It’s uncertain how many will lose coverage, not necessarily due to ineligibility, but procedural hurdles.”
Other Health Implications
Jennifer Tolbert, associate director of the Medicaid program at the Health Policy Research Group KFF, pointed out that other studies consistently show that uninsured individuals are less inclined to receive treatment for serious health issues compared to their insured counterparts.
According to KFF reports, nearly a third of uninsured adults delay or forego care due to costs, whereas only 6% of insured people do the same. Tolbert noted that such delays can exacerbate preventable conditions and chronic diseases.
Additionally, new findings suggest that approximately 1.9 million people might skip or delay their prescribed medications each year due to these cuts.
The financial impact is significant; the cuts are expected to contribute to an additional $7.6 billion in medical debt across the U.S. By 2034, the report predicts that over 100 rural hospitals may face closure, risking around 300,000 jobs and shrinking the economy by approximately $135 billion. In a more severe scenario, unemployment could reach 408,000, with an economic hit of $182 billion.
Dr. Benjamin Somers, a physician and health economist at the Harvard Chan School of Public Health, observed that many individuals aren’t aware of their loss of coverage until they face substantial medical bills after a doctor’s visit.
Sommers, who previously studied the impact of Arkansas’ Medicaid work requirements, pointed out that the program was discontinued after just ten months, leaving data on hospitalization and mortality elusive.
He concluded, “There are numerous ways individuals face bureaucracy,” emphasizing that red tape can obscure the implications of policies and their relevance to people’s lives.
