A new set of battleground state polls suggests Donald Trump will return to the White House, with battleground state voters paving the way for him.
According to an Emerson College poll conducted in seven battleground states from September 15 to 18, the former president is leading by five electoral votes, which would give him 281 electoral votes if the map holds, comfortably surpassing the 270-vote threshold for victory.
Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Georgia (50% to 47%), Arizona and Wisconsin (49% to 48% in both states), Nevada (48.4% to 47.7%) and Pennsylvania (48% to 47%), giving him a total of 62 electoral votes from battleground states.
Harris is leading in North Carolina (49% to 48%) and Michigan (49% to 47%), giving her 31 electoral votes in those two battleground states.
Emerson executive director Spencer Kimball said the race has been virtually static, although there have been some slight movements since the last poll before the presidential debate.
“In Arizona and North Carolina, Trump lost one point and Harris gained one point. In Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, Trump's support remained unchanged and Harris' support fell one point in Michigan and Nevada and remained unchanged in Wisconsin. In Georgia, Trump gained three points and Harris lost two points,” Kimball said Thursday, providing background on the numbers.
But it's not all good news for Republicans.
While voters say they support Trump, majorities in each state believe Harris will win, with 53% in North Carolina, 52% in Michigan, 51% each in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and 50% in Nevada believing a Democrat will keep the White House no matter how they vote.
As other polls have shown, Trump's appeal as a top candidate has not translated into victories for lesser candidates, with Republicans lagging behind the party's standard-bearer in key state contests.
In Arizona, Kali Lake is trailing Trump by seven points and trailing Democrat Ruben Gallego in the Senate race, 42% to 49%.
Mike Rogers is also five points behind Trump in the Michigan Senate race, with Democrat Elissa Slotkin leading 47% to 42%.
Trump's slim lead in Nevada won't help Sam Brown in the Senate race, where he is set to lose 41% to 48% to incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen.
North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson has lagged behind Democrat Josh Stein in every poll, and that continues to be the case in this election, trailing 40% to 48%.
Similarly, Republican Senate candidates David McCormick of Pennsylvania and Eric Hovde of Wisconsin are also lagging behind President Trump.
McCormick is trailing incumbent Democrat Bob Casey 42% to 47%, while Hovde is trailing Tammy Baldwin 46% to 49%.
