The NZD/USD dropped by 0.4% on Thursday, continuing its decline throughout the trading session and ending the day near its lowest point. Recently, this currency pair has been stuck in a wide range, unable to revisit the early March highs around 0.6120. The bearish momentum picked up during the afternoon, forcing the price to close close to its session low.
Interestingly, there wasn’t much driving the New Zealand dollar on Thursday. The April New Zealand Manufacturing Index (PMI), released after local trading hours, showed a reading of 53.2. Looking ahead, the New Zealand Business Services Performance Index (PSI) is set to be published over the weekend, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the first quarter will drop on Monday. Also, China’s industrial production and retail sales figures for April, released the same day, remain relevant due to trade connections. Previous figures were 5.7% and 1.7% year-on-year, respectively.
On the American front, retail sales in April met expectations, growing by 0.5% month-over-month. However, new jobless claims increased to 211,000, slightly higher than the anticipated 205,000—an unexpected turn. Various Federal Reserve officials spoke during the session, including New York Fed President John Williams. Currently, the market is keenly focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting next Wednesday and Friday’s release of consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan, particularly concerning the previous inflation expectations figure of 4.5%, which will likely be examined closely.
NZD/USD 5 minute chart
On the 5-minute chart, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5916, sitting below the daily opening price of 0.5937, which indicates a continued bearish trend as it consolidates near those lows. The latest Stochastic RSI reading is near the lower band, hinting that the downward momentum may be weakening, but the price still remains below the opening levels.
In terms of resistance, that opening price of 0.5937 needs to be reclaimed by bulls to ease the immediate downside pressure. However, there’s a lack of nearby support on the downside. If the Stochastic RSI stays around 0.5916, we might look for signs of a softer Stochastic RSI to show a potential decrease in selling pressure.
Shifting to the daily chart, NZD/USD is at 0.5916. It is positioned above both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), which reinforces a bullish undercurrent as the EMA converges around 0.59 and currently acts as support. The rising Stochastic RSI near 78 suggests continuing bullish momentum, though the situation is edging closer to overbought territory, indicating that movement upward could slow without fresh catalysts.
For support levels, the 50-day EMA around 0.5884 appears first, followed by the 200-day EMA near 0.5864. Recently, buyers have defended these levels. A daily close below this EMA range could jeopardize the bullish sentiment and leave the door open for a more considerable retracement toward previous lows. On the flip side, if the price holds above this EMA range, it may pave the way for a modest recovery toward the 0.60 mark.
(The technical analysis in this story was written with the help of AI tools.)
