In preparation, New Zealand has been testing thousands of birds over the past year. Although only two infected birds have been found so far—both still alive—many are already taking precautions. For instance, poultry farmers are keeping free-range hens inside, the oldest zoo in the country has stopped close encounters with penguins, and the public is advised against touching or moving dead wildlife.

Before last month, Oceania was the only region free from this deadly flu strain. An infected seabird was recently identified on a beach in Western Australia, and both nations saw the virus first appear in the brown skua, an assertive scavenger known for its aggressive behavior.

The long absence of predatory mammals allowed New Zealand’s birds to evolve in a way that made them comfortable roaming the forest floor, eliminating the need for flight.

However, the introduction of humans and bird-hunting mammals about 700 years ago has drastically altered this scenario. Over 20% of the native bird species have vanished, including the Haast Eagle, once the world’s largest eagle, and the towering South Island Giant Moa, which stood over 3.6 meters tall.

Currently, more than half of the remaining 93 endemic species are classified as “in serious trouble,” teetering on the brink of extinction, according to a 2017 government report.

Many of these species resemble creatures from an ancient era, like the takahē, kiwi, and kākāpō—memorable for a media moment when a kākāpō named Sirocco attempted to mate with a zoologist’s head in a documentary.

Bird flu poses a real risk for the kākāpō, as only about 235 of them remain, primarily living on a single small island sanctuary off the coast of Rakiura/Stewart Island.

“There are a lot of seabirds coming in, and the kākāpō may interact with them… which raises risk levels,” said Ash Murray, the biosecurity manager at New Zealand’s conservation department.

The virus spreads through the droppings and saliva of infected birds. Thus, species that congregate in large numbers, like seabirds, face heightened risk, along with scavengers like eagles and hawks preying on dead wildlife.

Interestingly, the kiwi, an iconic national bird, is not part of the initial vaccination plan. Murray explained that with around 70,000 kiwis in the wild, the risk is lower because they don’t often gather in large groups. However, some of the rarest kiwi breeds may be included in future vaccination efforts.

At the Ōamaru penguin colony, where tourists flock to witness the little blue penguins return after a day of fishing, rules have tightened. Visitors must now disinfect their shoes upon arrival, acknowledging that the virus can hitch a ride on footwear.

Dr. Philippa Agnew, a science and environment manager at Ōamaru Penguins, shared, “We’ve set up these measures to protect the birds.”

With around 700 penguins at this colony and an additional 500 nearby, the concentration increases vulnerability.

Agnew pointed out, “Little penguins are exclusive to New Zealand and Australia… The potential impact remains largely unknown.” Though overseas incidents of penguins succumbing to the virus exist, they haven’t occurred in excessive numbers.

Adding to concerns, the colony is home to New Zealand fur seals that coexist with numerous seabirds. Agnew expressed her unease, stating, “It would be really distressing to see declines in our seals and sea lions.”

Earlier this year, research indicated that the virus had decimated approximately 13,000 seal pups on the subantarctic Heard and McDonald Islands, wiping out three-quarters of their population. Drone footage revealed many seal carcasses along the islands’ volcanic shores.

New Zealand is home to over 200,000 fur seals, a population that has only recently rebounded after historical hunting reduced their numbers significantly. Yet, the focus has shifted to the more endangered New Zealand sea lion, believed to number fewer than 5,000 mature adults.

“They are significantly rarer,” Murray emphasized. “So, we need to monitor that species closely.”

Globally, chickens suffer the greatest losses from this pathogen, with a near-zero survival rate upon infection. Mass culling campaigns have been implemented in various countries, including the U.S., where about 174 million chickens have been destroyed.

New Zealand’s biosecurity minister has warned that similar measures would be taken here should outbreaks occur, which could lead to shortages of chicken and eggs in stores. Grocers are already advising customers against panic buying.

However, officials remain calm about the arrival of bird flu. Being the last to face this situation has allowed the country years of preparation, a significant advantage according to Murray.

Now, it’s a matter of managing the risks.

“It’s going to be here forever… It will hinge on how we help our native species adapt to this new threat,” he concluded.