The number of foreigners eligible to naturalize in the United States now exceeds the margin of victory in five battleground states in the 2020 presidential election.
A report released Thursday by the American Immigration Council concluded that if some or all of the country’s 7.4 million eligible but not yet naturalized residents receive citizenship by November, it could determine the outcome of the 2024 election.
That is unlikely to happen, as the naturalization process for eligible foreigners takes about eight months from application to receiving a citizenship certificate.
But the report highlights the disconnect between the size of immigrant communities, their economic influence and political power.
Immigrants make up 13.8% of the U.S. population but only 10% of the electorate.
And in theory, potential citizens could have an impact in both battleground states and some key Republican states.
The researchers concluded that 574,800 immigrants in Florida would likely be eligible to naturalize, but former President Trump’s margin of victory in the state was 371,686 votes.
In Texas, the population eligible for naturalization is estimated at 789,500, and the margin of victory in the 2020 presidential election was 631,221.
The margin of victory in some battleground states pales in comparison to the number of potential new voters.
In Arizona, 164,000 people could apply for citizenship, with a margin of victory of 10,457 votes, a ratio of about 16 to 1. In Georgia, the ratio is about 13 to 1.
Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin are all on the list, with ratios of naturalization-eligible residents to 2020 wins of roughly 8-to-1, 3-to-1, 2-to-1 and 5-to-2, respectively.
The report also found that despite their low political representation, immigrants pay 16.2% of all taxes paid by U.S. households in 2022.
