Post Sports Gambling Editor/Producer, Digital Sports Editor Matt Ehardt is in his first season of NFL Bettor's Guide.
All spreads and odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
Washington Commanders (+9.5) vs. Detroit Lions
This line scares us because it feels like it's higher than it needs to be, but we don't mind supporting Jaden Daniels to keep this game competitive and within 10 points.
Yes, this is a tough situation for Washington, especially since Detroit was having a bye week.
The big spread allows for backdoor coverage, and Washington's recent play gives us confidence that they can compete.
Washington hasn't lost by more than eight points since losing by 17 points to the Buccaneers, whom they defeated in the wild-card round, in Week 1. Granted, none of those teams were the Lions.
Detroit has struggled with two-way quarterbacks, allowing more than 60 yards to Josh Allen and Anthony Richardson, and Washington has indicated it intends to give Daniels plenty of running time.
Washington's defense has played better in recent weeks, which will be important in preventing Detroit from scoring at will inside the Dome.
Houston Texans (+8.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
In Week 16, the Chiefs defeated the Texans 27-19 at home.
The spread in this game was small at just 3.5, but the Chiefs are currently laying down more than a touchdown. A repeat of that game will see Houston cover here.
Even though we (wrongly) lost to Houston last week, our bet on the Chiefs game is paying off this year.
The Texans will have to find a way to further isolate Nico Collins (7 catches, 60 yards), who had little impact in their last matchup, and Joe Mixon will have to be more productive with 14 carries for 57 yards. You will need to increase it.
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If C.J. Stroud can avoid a terrible interception (he threw two in a December matchup), the Texans could hang.
The benefit of this spread is that it once again gives us the opportunity for backdoor cover.
Houston's defense looked rejuvenated against the Chargers, intercepting Justin Herbert four times, and will have to be just as opportunistic in this matchup.
last week: 0-2. Charger (L); Vikings (L)
season: 14-23-1.
