The NFL’s Week 8 matchups for Sunday and Monday present some intriguing possibilities.
Sunday
Giants (+7) vs. Eagles
The Giants might have struggled in Denver, but they definitely have some grit left. Players like Jackson Dart and Cam Skatebo show promise, and maybe, just maybe, they can secure a few wins. Saquon Barkley hasn’t been himself this season, possibly due to an offensive line that’s not quite what it used to be. If AJ Brown misses the game, things could get tight in Philadelphia.
Jets (+6.5) vs. Bengals
Honestly, I’m not really sure who’s throwing the ball for the Jets right now—and I’m not overly concerned. Despite the ups and downs, the Jets’ defense seems to be making strides; they’ve been limiting opponents to 197.1 passing yards per game, which is impressive. The Bengals’ offense may just struggle here. Can the Jets pull off a win?
Packers (-3.5) vs. Steelers
So, is Aaron Rodgers still not the most popular guy out there? I wonder if he’s feeling the pressure. Green Bay is solid, ranking high in both pass rush and run stop percentages. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s defense has had its share of problems this season. My model suggests the Packers have the edge. Expected score? Packers 25.43, Steelers 19.91.
Bills (-7.5) vs. Panthers
After a bye week, the Bills are looking healthier than they have in a while. Their run defense has its weaknesses, but the return of Ed Oliver could bolster them. With Bryce Young questionable and Josh Allen well-rested, the Bills should find success, even if the Panthers are showing some improvement.
Patriots (-7) vs. Browns
It could get messy in New England, but the Patriots don’t necessarily lean on the run to win. Their passing game has excelled, particularly with Drake Maye’s emergence. If they can tighten up their run defense, which is doing pretty well statistically, Browns QB Dillon Gabriel might struggle.
Ravens (-7.5) vs. Bears
With Lamar Jackson likely to be back, the Ravens need to hit the ground running. A few weeks back, this line would have been higher, but now it seems more reasonable. Baltimore seems primed for a straightforward victory, especially against a Bears’ defense that has allowed a lot of yardage.
Falcons (-7.5) vs. Dolphins
The Dolphins have been explosive lately, while the Falcons took a hit against the 49ers last week, though they seem to have rebounded. With Miami’s poor rushing defense, Bijan Robinson could make a significant impact. The Falcons have a tangible advantage here.
49ers (+2.5) vs. Texans
I find DVOA to be a more reliable metric than many others. The Texans are performing decently in yards per carry allowed but struggle in points allowed. The 49ers aren’t at their best yet, but I still think they might get a win here, particularly with Kyle Shanahan facing off against his former assistant.
Buccaneers (-3.5) vs. Saints
The spread has shifted from 6.5 to 3.5, which raises some eyebrows. While Emeka Egbuka has been cleared from injury, Mike Evans is nursing an ailment. That’s significant, but maybe not enough to account for that spread. This matchup in the NFC South could be pivotal, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Bucs come out on top.
Broncos (-3) vs. Cowboys
Is it time to dismiss the Cowboys for another week? Their defense isn’t performing well, ranking near the bottom in DVOA and letting up significant yardage. The perceived improvement seems overstated. I favor the Broncos to take this one at home.
Colts (-14.5) vs. Titans
The Colts are better than I thought. The spread appears reasonable given the prediction scores. This game could be a tough one for the Titans, especially since their run defense has struggled. With Jonathan Taylor leading the charge, the Colts are in a strong position.
Monday
Chiefs (-11.5) vs. Commanders: There’s a lot going on in Washington, isn’t there? The Chiefs’ only real threat of losing would be allowing a high score. They’ve been solid defensively lately, so I can’t see that happening. With Marcus Mariota in the mix for the Commanders, it doesn’t seem likely they’ll pose a significant challenge.
Last week: 5-9
Season: 43-56.
