The NFL involves complexities that are beyond most fans' understanding. The overlapping military terminology of trenches, bombs, and spies reinforces that concept. But sometimes the simplest stories offer profitable betting angles, and it appears the Baltimore Ravens have that as well.
My favorite bet for today's AFC showdown is that Lamar Jackson will have fewer than 28.5 pass attempts.
I believe offensive coordinator Todd Monken is someone who wants to avoid criticism while also learning from his mistakes. In last year's playoff loss, they called only 16 run plays despite having one of the league's most aggressive offenses. He was appropriately maligned throughout the offseason for his unforgivably pass-happy mindset.
It's highly doubtful he'll have the same kind of oversight on Sunday, especially now that he has leading running back Derrick Henry. I expect Baltimore to attack the Buffalo Bills on the ground early and often, much like they did in last week's 28-14 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Ravens finished with 50 rushing attempts, including 26 by Henry and 15 by Jackson. Obviously the flow of the game played a key role, with the Ravens building a 21-0 lead at halftime and allowing the run game to slow down the clock and protect the lead.
However, this was also their thinking from the beginning. The Ravens attempted just three passes on an opening 13-play, 95-yard drive. That included five consecutive runs by Jackson, with just one run coming off a scrambled pass.
Additionally, while the Steelers were dominated and Baltimore took advantage of the run to shorten the game in the second half, Buffalo is thought to have a much more capable offense and longer drives than Pittsburgh. That minimized Baltimore's total snaps.
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I prefer a total attempts prop over passing yards because I believe the Ravens will have success through the air. In fact, Jackson led the NFL in yards per attempt and yards per completion. Therefore, the Ravens will have to run chunk pass plays as Baltimore's rushing attack puts a lot of pressure on Buffalo's defense.
There's also clearly a scenario where Jackson is relegated to passer, perhaps if Baltimore trails by multiple points in the second half. But ultimately, as bettors we try to find edges and opportunities, and perhaps we do it with a simple story of ego and logic.
