November is here, and the NFL season is starting to feel like a race toward the playoffs. There’s still plenty of football left, of course, but Week 8 shook up the standings and left a few familiar teams outside the current playoff field.
Monday night’s Bears-Seahawks game could shift things again. Here’s where both conferences stand before kickoff.
The AFC playoff picture
All AFC teams have completed their Week 8 games. The standings currently look like this:
- Buffalo Bills (6-1)
- Denver Broncos (6-2)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2)
- Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)
- Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)
- New England Patriots (5-3)
- Cleveland Browns (5-3)
- Las Vegas Raiders (4-4)
- Baltimore Ravens (4-4)
- Houston Texans (2-5)
- New York Jets (2-6)
- Indianapolis Colts (2-6)
- Miami Dolphins (1-6)
- Tennessee Titans (1-7)
- Los Angeles Chargers (0-7)
The Jets and Colts have the same record, but New York sits above Indianapolis because it has a better record in AFC games: 2-3, compared with the Colts’ 1-5. The Jets also hold the Colts’ first-round pick after the Sauce Gardner trade, which gives them another reason to be pleased with the situation.
Las Vegas and Baltimore are both 4-4, but the Raiders’ 3-3 record in conference play puts them ahead of the Ravens, who are 2-3 against AFC opponents.
There’s a similar split between New England and Cleveland. Both are 5-3, but the Patriots are 5-1 in AFC games and currently hold the seventh seed. The Browns are 3-3 in conference play and just outside the playoff spots.
Denver’s win over Kansas City on Sunday moved the Broncos into first place in the AFC West and up to No. 2 in the conference. Denver and Pittsburgh are both 6-2, but the Broncos’ 3-1 AFC record edges the Steelers’ 3-2 mark.
If the AFC playoffs began today, the first-round matchups would be:
- No. 7 New England at No. 2 Denver
- No. 6 Cincinnati at No. 3 Pittsburgh
- No. 5 Kansas City at No. 4 Jacksonville
The NFC playoff picture
Here’s the current NFC order:
- San Francisco 49ers (6-1)
- Minnesota Vikings (6-1)
- New York Giants (4-2-1)
- Carolina Panthers (3-4)
- Detroit Lions (5-2)
- Chicago Bears (5-2)
- Green Bay Packers (5-3)
- Seattle Seahawks (4-3)
- Los Angeles Rams (4-4)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)
- Atlanta Falcons (3-5)
- Arizona Cardinals (3-5)
- Dallas Cowboys (3-5)
- Washington Commanders (2-4-1)
- New Orleans Saints (2-5)
- Philadelphia Eagles (2-6)
Four NFC teams are 3-5, so the tiebreakers matter. The Buccaneers beat Atlanta, giving Tampa Bay the advantage over the Falcons. That leaves Tampa Bay, Arizona and Dallas in the next part of the comparison. Since both Tampa Bay and Arizona have beaten Dallas, the Cowboys fall behind those two.
Tampa Bay currently ranks above Arizona with a 3-2 record in NFC games. The Cardinals are 2-4 in conference play. Atlanta sits ahead of Arizona and Dallas, too, thanks to its 3-3 NFC record; both of those teams are 2-4. Arizona then gets the nod over Dallas after beating the Cowboys on Sunday.
At the top of the standings, San Francisco is ahead of Minnesota because its strength-of-victory figure is higher: .456 compared with .400. Both teams are 4-1 in conference games, and they have not yet played enough common opponents for that to settle the tie.
Detroit holds the fifth seed over Chicago because the Lions are 2-0 in division games, while the Bears are 0-2.
If the NFC playoffs started today, the matchups would be:
- No. 7 Green Bay at No. 2 Minnesota
- No. 6 Chicago at No. 3 New York
- No. 5 Detroit at No. 4 Carolina
What’s at stake in Bears-Seahawks?
Monday night’s game between Chicago and Seattle has playoff consequences, even this early in the season. The result could give the winner a useful tiebreaker later on, and a Bears victory would move Chicago up to the fifth spot in the NFC.
If Chicago loses, it would fall into a three-way tie with Green Bay and Seattle. The Bears would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Packers, who beat them. Green Bay would then take sixth place with a 4-3 conference record, ahead of Seattle’s 2-2 mark. The Seahawks would be seventh after beating Chicago, leaving the Bears in eighth.
A Bears win would also leave Seattle at 4-4 and push the Seahawks behind the Rams into ninth. Seattle is 1-3 in NFC games, while Los Angeles is 2-2.
