The 2025 NFL Playoffs have kicked off! From Saturday afternoon through Monday night, six games are scheduled, but there’s only one with a spread of 3.5 points or more. Intriguingly, four of the contenders for the championship will be on the road. This situation often leads to unexpected results, especially considering this season didn’t see a standout team dominating the league. Even the Rams, who are the most favored this weekend with a spread of 10.5 points, faced a surprising loss to their wild-card opponent, the Panthers, just six weeks back.
Let’s dive into this weekend’s matchups with a focus on potential upsets, and honestly, I think a few surprises might be coming.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills (-1.5)
The Bills wrapped up the season second in the AFC East, finishing at 12 wins and five losses, while the Jaguars topped the AFC South with a record of 13 wins and four losses. It’s worth noting that the Bills have stumbled against teams they perhaps shouldn’t have lost to, whereas the Jaguars, despite a less daunting schedule, have now won seven consecutive games.
On a positive note for the Jaguars, they possess one of the league’s stoutest run defenses, which should create an interesting dynamic against the Bills’ run game, led by James Cook. The Jaguars allow a mere 3.86 yards per carry, ranking third worst in the league, but they also give up the fewest total rushing yards at 68, plus very few fantasy points to running backs.
While the Jaguars may lack in their passing game, the Bills haven’t exactly excelled there either, averaging 216 passing yards per game. Their receiving corps hasn’t been particularly dynamic this season, so it’s largely been about Cook and quarterback Josh Allen making things happen on the ground. Sure, their run game has been effective enough to secure 12 wins, but if the Jaguars’ tough run defense can contain them, the Bills could find themselves in for a tough battle. More likely than not, we’ll need some standout plays from Allen to secure a win, which is definitely possible, but not a certainty.
New England Patriots (-3.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Patriots snagged the No. 2 seed with a 14-3 record, largely thanks to an easier schedule. Meanwhile, the Chargers sit second in the AFC West with an 11-6 record, having navigated injuries along the offensive line and multiple losses to teams they probably should have beaten.
While the Patriots haven’t faced many tough opponents recently, the Chargers have encountered significant challenges but managed to rest some players in Week 18, which was crucial. Their defensive unit is particularly strong against the pass, ranking 10th in DVOA and 6th in EPA allowed. Drake Maye has been efficient in the passing game, but it will be interesting to see if the Chargers can limit that efficiency this weekend.
Throughout this season, the Chargers allowed just 16 passing touchdowns while forcing 19 interceptions, giving them the lowest quarterback rating in the league. They effectively shut down notable quarterbacks, including Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence, and managed to pick off Jalen Hurts four times. No quarterback has thrown for more than 288 yards against them, and they kept passing touchdowns to a minimum.
The Patriots’ defense has performed well against weaker teams, but injuries have seized their run defense in the latter part of the season. They allowed 100-yard performances to four of the last six starting running backs they faced. I anticipate the Chargers will leverage rookie running back Omarion Hampton early in the game to help mitigate Maye’s long passes.
