On Thursday night, the upstart Washington Commanders will visit the resurgent Philadelphia Eagles in an NFC East battle with big implications for the postseason.
The Eagles are the home favorites by 3.5 points with an over/under of 48.5 points.
Who will emerge victorious in this prime-time divisional game?
when the coach has the ball
The coaches have significantly exceeded their preseason win total prediction of 6.5 and appear poised to make the postseason in Jayden Daniels' rookie season.
Daniels exceeded all expectations, ranking fourth among QBR-qualified quarterbacks with just two interceptions against nine touchdowns and an impressive rushing profile.
Kliff Kingsbury has done a great job as offensive coordinator, with Washington ranking second among NFL offenses in EPA per play this season.
However, a road matchup in a short week presents a big challenge for the Eagles' rising defense.
It's been a rocky start to the year, but since the team's Week 5 bye, Vic Fangio's defense has led the NFL in EPA per play and completion percentage allowed.
Rookie defensive backs Kunyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean made a huge difference, and Zach Baun proved to be one of the steals of the offseason.
The Eagles rank 10th among defensive lines in pass rush win percentage and should be able to put pressure on Daniels.
The rookie passer hasn't been as good against pressure this season, ranking 31st out of 37 eligible quarterbacks with an adjusted completion rate of 58%.
when the eagles have the ball
The Eagles' offense, led by Kellen Moore, has started to take shape in recent weeks, especially with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith healthy.
Over the past five games, Jalen Hurts has totaled 16 touchdowns and just one interception.
He will be facing a Washington defense that has improved significantly since the beginning of the season under coach Dan Quinn.
Since Week 5, the Commanders have ranked sixth in EPA per pass allowed, but only 24th in EPA per rush allowed. Washington has struggled defensively up front this season, ranking 29th in adjusted defensive line yards.
Saquon Barkley should play well against this defense on early downs behind an offensive line that produced the second-most adjusted line yards per running back carry.
Left tackle Jordan Mailata is expected to return for this game and his impact will be huge. The coach's biggest asset on defense is his pressure unit, which ranks fourth in pass rush win percentage.
Mailata has been out since Week 6, but ranks as PFF's second-best offensive tackle in pass block win percentage.
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prediction
The coaches have exceeded all expectations this season, but I'll be here rooting for the Eagles at home.
Washington's offense faces the fifth-easiest schedule of opposing defenses, and last week the Steelers had only the second above-average DVOA pass defense of the year.
Fangio's defense will be ready to give Daniels a challenge.
I expect the Eagles' run game to dominate on early downs, making Hurts' passing downs easier against defenses that emphasize man coverage.
If Washington needs to spend additional resources to stop the run, look for Brown and Smith to beat the Commanders' cornerbacks in one-on-one coverage.
The market is moving toward the Eagles as a 3.5-point favorite, but you should be able to find -3 at odds of -120 or higher.
If not, I recommend evening the money line for the Lions and Eagles, who are 13.5 point favorites against the Jaguars on Sunday.
Pick: Wait for the Eagles -3 or Eagles ML + Lions ML Parlay (-144, BetMGM)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He gained 84.5 units across two sports for an ROI of 6.27%.
