Week One of the NFL Season: Survival Rates and Predictions
Almost everyone made it through the first week of the NFL season. But, is that actually a good thing? The survivor pool in Vegas, boasting an impressive $12 million prize, has seen a remarkable 96.9% of participants advance to the next round.
What surprises might week two hold? Honestly, I’m not too sure.
Looking back at weeks 13 to 17 of last season, favorites with a point spread of over six were 29-1 straight up, with the only upset occurring when the Giants beat the Colts. In week one, favorites won 13 out of 16 matchups while finishing 9-7 against the spread.
Given these stats, I’ve been thinking about my top survivor pick for the upcoming week.
Week 2 NFL Survivor Pool Picks and Rankings
| Ranking | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | Ravens (vs. Browns) |
| 2 | Cardinals (vs. Panthers) |
| 3 | Rams (@Titans) |
| 4 | Cowboys (vs. Giants) |
| 5 | Vikings (vs. Jets) |
| 6 | 49ers (@Saints) |
| 7 | Lions (vs. Bears) |
| 8 | Vikings (vs. Falcons) |
| 9 | Steelers (vs. Seahawks) |
| 10 | Chargers (@Raiders) |
| 11 | Texans (vs. Buccaneers) |
| 12 | Bengals (vs. Jaguars) |
| 13 | Packers (vs. Commanders) |
| 14 | Broncos (@Colts) |
| 15 | Dolphins (vs. Patriots) |
| 16 | Eagles (@Chiefs) |
Survivor Strategy and Picks
Ravens
Last week, Joe Flacco and the Browns should have pulled off a win against the Bengals, but missed opportunities with dropped passes and field goals cost them dearly. Now, they face the Ravens as 12.5-point underdogs. If you’re thinking of banking on one of the league’s strongest teams early on, the Ravens look like a solid pick.
That said, keep in mind that the Browns managed to beat the Ravens last October. They didn’t look too shabby in week one, so it may be wise to be cautious with what many will consider a popular choice.
Cardinals
If the Saints don’t pull through this week, I’ve got my eyes on the Cardinals. The Panthers were thoroughly outplayed by the Jaguars in their opener, and honestly, Carolina didn’t seem ready for a legitimate challenge.
It might be smart to go with Arizona early on, especially given how poorly the Panthers performed.
Rams
If you already picked the Cardinals last week, the Rams could be another excellent option. Rookie quarterbacks often falter in veteran matchups, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this works out well.
Since 2015, rookie quarterbacks have a rather shaky record—327 wins against 486 losses. Avoiding potential pitfalls this Sunday could pay dividends.
Final Thoughts
As always, while making your picks, it’s essential to consider both the form of the teams and the unpredictable nature of the NFL. Good luck!
