Football handicapper Sean Trepedi is in his first season in the Post's NFL Bettor's Guide.
Minnesota Vikings (+3) vs. Green Bay Packers
The market believes the 3-0 Vikings are overvalued heading into a district road matchup against Green Bay, but I'm willing to stand with 82 percent of public bettors who disagree.
Sam Darnold may still have a lot to prove, but there's no denying he's a perfect fit in Kevin O'Connell's system, which boasts the second-highest passer rating in the NFL at 117.3.
Additionally, it will be a revenge game for Aaron Jones, who started with 5.4 yards per carry.
Even if Jordan Love returns, it's not the friendliest situation. Brian Flores has helped lead Minnesota in quarterback pressures and sacks, and has made Minnesota the No. 1 unit in defensive DVOA thanks to his just two passing touchdowns thus far.
Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins 36.5 and under
Get ready for the paint dryer on Monday night.
Will Levis' stupid decisions led to Tennessee having the most turnovers in football. Miami's Tyler Huntley, who has been removed from the practice squad and will be playing under center, cannot be expected to do much more than this.
Both secondaries are quietly playing responsible defense, as Tennessee has allowed the fewest air yards and Miami ranks in the top 10 in yards after the catch allowed.
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The only time the Dolphins led all season was on the game-winning field goal in Week 1, and they scored the fewest points in the NFL (33 points).
Now let's compare this to Tennessee's offense, which ranks 31st in offensive EPA per play.
Since 2020, the under has won 74% of games totaling 37 points or less.
last week: 2-0. Panthers (W), Giants vs. Browns Under (W)
season: 4-2.
