Still hanging on? There were fewer upsets last week, but Survivor pools remain a challenge. Arizona’s win over Dallas was the biggest surprise, though by now most players should probably be avoiding the Cowboys. Denver’s late win over Kansas City and Tampa Bay’s home victory over Atlanta were also notable, but didn’t affect many Survivor entries.
Here are my picks for Week 9, with Jaguars-Ravens kicking things off Thursday night. In a Survivor pool, you choose one team to win each week; if it loses, you’re usually out. I’m in a double-elimination pool with four entries. Three are gone, including one that fell to Houston last week. My remaining entry already has a strike, so I’m running out of room.
Below are the safest options, a couple of value picks, and some choices that come with a bit more risk. I’ll finish with my pick for the week. The listed odds are for each game’s favorite.
Safest picks
49ers (-9.5) over Raiders
Jaguars (-10.5) over Ravens
Chiefs (-9.5) over Jets
San Francisco is coming off a bye and getting healthier. With the Raiders struggling on defense, the 49ers could put up plenty of points at home.
Thursday games can be unpredictable, so it’s understandable if you’d rather steer clear of Jaguars-Ravens. Still, Baltimore is down to its third-string quarterback and is expected to bring in Jacoby Brissett after this game. That’s a difficult situation for the Ravens.
Kansas City is coming off a loss, and the Jets kept things close against the Raiders. Even so, I have a hard time seeing this one being particularly close.
Best value picks
Bears (-6.5) over Buccaneers
Seahawks (-8.5) over Cardinals
Tampa Bay has its quarterback back and picked up an important win over Atlanta in the rain last week. The Bears, though, have been playing well. Jeffery Simmons has made a major difference on defense, while Caleb Williams has been steady.
Division games are usually worth avoiding, but Arizona seems to have shifted its focus toward next season. The team put running back Jeremiyah Love on injured reserve and is expected to trade Jacoby Brissett to Baltimore in the coming days. Gardner Minshew can be dangerous now and then, but I’m not convinced he can manage the Seahawks’ defense.
Drew Lock is set to start with Sam Darnold injured. That might sound like a downgrade, but given Darnold’s play this season, I’m not sure it is.
Trap picks
Lions (-7) over Dolphins
Seahawks (-8.5) over Cardinals
I expect Detroit to take care of business against Miami, but this is a tricky spot: the Lions have to travel and are coming off an emotional win over Minnesota.
The Seahawks are also a somewhat uncomfortable pick. If you see Lock as a downgrade, or think Minshew might catch fire, it’s easy to imagine this turning into a trap. There’s still value there, but it isn’t an automatic choice.
My pick this week
I’m going with Chicago. Jacksonville and Seattle are both possibilities, but I think I’ll hold those picks back for now.
