With 11 games left in the NFL regular season, it's only natural to start looking ahead to the playoffs and beyond. Needless to say, anything can happen in the postseason, but looking at the trends in the league, I feel pretty comfortable separating the favorites from the favorites.
At this point, no one in the NFL is excluded from the playoffs, at least technically. Obviously, the Jaguars or Cowboys haven't won a Super Bowl, but they still need to be ranked until the end of the season. Here's how we ranked teams based on their chances of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in 2025.
super bowl ranking
| A.F.C. | james | mark | Japan | average | NFC | james | mark | Japan | average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.F.C. | james | mark | Japan | average | NFC | james | mark | Japan | average |
| invoice | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | lions | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| chiefs | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | eagles | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4.33 |
| ravens | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | commander | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7.33 |
| steelers | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5.66 | vikings | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| texans | 9 | 7 | 11 | 9 | cardinals | 12 | 12 | 8 | 10.66 |
| charger | 10 | 9 | 12 | 10.33 | packers | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10.66 |
| broncos | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | falcons | 14 | 14 | 16 | 14.66 |
| dolphin | 15 | 16 | 14 | 15 | rams | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15.33 |
| colts | 19 | 19 | 20 | 19.33 | seahawks | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| bengals | twenty one | 20 | 19 | 20 | 49ers | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| jets | twenty two | twenty four | 26 | twenty four | buccaneers | 20 | twenty one | twenty one | 20.66 |
| patriots | 26 | twenty five | twenty four | twenty five | saint | twenty three | twenty two | twenty two | 22.33 |
| titans | 28 | 27 | 27 | 27.33 | bear | twenty four | twenty three | twenty three | 23.33 |
| browns | 27 | 28 | 28 | 27.66 | panthers | twenty five | 26 | twenty five | 25.33 |
| Raiders | 29 | 29 | 31 | 29.66 | cowboys | 30 | 32 | 29 | 30.33 |
| jaguars | 32 | 30 | 32 | 31.33 | giants | 31 | 31 | 30 | 30.66 |
1st place: Detroit Lions
Lions continue to destroy their opponents. You can throw cold water at them by saying they've never played against a good team, but they're doing what an elite team should do against a bad team and knocking them down to the kingdom. The Lions have more games with over 40 points than fewer than 20 points. It's ruthless and unbelievable football.
Their method is actually very simple, but they have so much speed everywhere on the field that teams have to give you space so they can crush you in the run game. Jameson Williams and Jahmil Gibbs provide pop to this offense, but there's no doubt about it. When everything flows to Detroit, they're getting contributions from everyone. The defense is also playing at an incredibly high level, with safeties Kirby Joseph and Brian Branch getting sticky coverage on the back end.
This could very well be the year the Detroit Freakin' Lions break the glass ceiling. To be honest, that's what I'm here for.
2nd place: Buffalo Bills
Sunday's game between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs may be the best example of why the Bills rank so high on this list.
Found in a fourth-and-2 situation late in the game and needing another big play to get the win against the Chiefs, the Bills turned to Josh Allen. As usual, Buffalo's Superman put the Bills on his back, bursting through the Kansas City defense and into the end zone, scoring a touchdown and effectively putting the game out of reach.
But it's true that beyond Allen, the Bills have a very strong case for this spot. They have the most efficient offense in the league, and the defense is certainly good enough to make this team a contender. If you look at both Graph of offensive EPA and defensive EPA RBSDMyou can see the Bills right behind the Lions.
But it starts at #17.
3rd place: Kansas City Chiefs
The door is definitely still open for a three-peat opportunity, but if you think this is the best iteration of the Chiefs we've seen in recent years, you'd be lying to yourself. The lack of weapons finally caught up with Kansas City, and it led to the least effective version of Patrick Mahomes we've seen in years.
Don't get me wrong. Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the NFL, but his offensive regression has forced him into too many plays this season, and he's on pace to set a career high in interceptions as a result. These types of mistakes are even bigger in the playoffs, where one turnover against a top opponent can spell the end for the entire playoffs.
Combine an ineffective Mahomes with a defense that has regressed significantly from a year ago, and it's hard to be as bullish about the 2024 Chiefs as you have been in years past. It's still hilarious that they're still in third place even though we doubt them, and it's a testament to how good this team is.
4th place: Philadelphia Eagles
As for the Philadelphia Eagles, this is a really interesting team to work on. Most recently, the Eagles were 2-2 and entered their bye week with questions about whether Nick Sirianni would make it through the season. They are currently on a six-game winning streak and are completely broken.
Saquon Barkley is the missing piece in this offense. The Eagles, who have rushed for 100 yards or more in four of their last five games, now have a fully realized offense that can succeed in either phase. On the other hand, it led to Jalen Hurts becoming a more confident passer in the pocket, which also shined.
The Eagles are a very dangerous team that has a chance to beat anyone in the NFL, but they are outside of the top three when it comes to how confident we are in them.
