The first round of the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs is still ongoing as he has more than a week of games in the book. The first chance of the series will be Tuesday, with Toronto and Carolina having the opportunity to close the doors and move on.
Playoff hockey and regular season are totally different beasts. Hockey is one sport where postseason success rarely matches what a team did before the playoffs. So we have a great opportunity to jump in right now and see which teams feel they can go all the way and who pretends.
Candidate: Toronto Maple Leafs
I own that there was a big question about Leo entering the playoffs… well… [looks at the last six decades]. But after some games against the senators, I’m buying this team.
The biggest problem with the Leaf last year was that the top players disappeared when the team hit the playoffs. Mitch Marner and John Tavares more or less disappeared, and Williams Nylander fought the injury. This left a massive gap where only players like Max Domi and Tyler Bertozzi were really playing.
You can already see that this is different. Marner, Nylander, and Auston Matthews are pinning their teams and proving that the stars are literally in alignment. We know many people are scared after the overtime loss in Toronto’s Ottawa on Saturday, but history will not repeat itself. Also, considering the Atlantic road to the Stanley Cup final fits well with the Reef, we can see the big ones from Toronto.
PRETENDER: Winnipeg Jets
I really don’t know what to say here. For a long time, the Jets have been my favorite to win the Cup, but the team we’re looking at right now is not like their regular season counterparts. This falls on Connor Helebuik, who turned into a pumpkin in these playoffs.
It’s hard to remember at the end that Vegina’s favorite goaltender was pulled twice in the opening series, but he can allow a soft goal, but here we are. Simply put, Winnipeg is built around efficiency and defense. If Hellebuyck allows five goals against teams like the Blues, we’re sure that if they move to face Colorado, Dallas, Edmonton and others, they won’t be able to keep the Jets’ heads on top of the water.
It’s still very possible for Jet to go past the Blues and go on, but it’s hard to imagine going further in the playoffs unless something changes a lot. Winnipeg is just as inconsistent as it was during the regular season. These issues only increase in all losses or close games.
Candidate: Carolina Hurricane
This is beginning to feel like the year the cane is actually pointing in the playoffs. The opening round against the Devils may not look like the best litmus test, but it means that Carolina’s brutal forecheck and deepline can be handed over by faster teams designed around finesse play.
The team’s stars Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis are all showing up a lot, but they endure deep playoff runs very well, given the breakout play of the youths on Jackson Blake and Logan Stankoven’s team. What we are seeing is the next evolution of the Rod-Brindamour system. This marries a two-way play on the hardline to allow enough wiggle room for the stars to show off their individuality.
This is all before stating that the hurricane is waiting for a major X-factor in the wing: Alexander Nixin. KHL Phenom arrived in Raleigh shortly before the playoffs and is practicing with his team to prepare for his debut. Nixin is everything this team has the ability to give power plays a big pop with his Kale McCal-esque play as a quarterback defensive man.
PRETENDER: Tampa Bay Lightning
There’s no doubt Tampa drew a short straw by getting Florida in the opening round, but I haven’t seen it from this team in 2025. Andrei Vasirebsky is heightened by the struggled lightning defenses. On the offensive side, on the other hand, the team hasn’t been released by anyone other than Jake Guanzel and Brayden Point. Someone else I have it Step up and get some goals.
Tampa is more or less the person we thought. It’s a very good team, but there’s a shortage of X Factors to become the Stanley Cup winner. Adding Genzel to free agency was great, but it didn’t necessarily meant that Lightning was a dramatic team.
Florida is getting healthy due to the playoffs exposes this team’s weaknesses to a greater or lesser extent.
What about Dallas and Colorado?
Without a doubt, the most brutal opening round series was between the stars and the avalanche, with both teams having the potential for a legitimate Stanley Cup to take part in the playoffs. That series shows that we know everything, and neither team knows anything.
Night and night consistency was not there from the stars. Mikko Lantanen doesn’t show Dallas what he needs, but it’s a testament to how good the Ace is as a team that is still competing, even if he doesn’t play his best hockey.
Meanwhile, AVS has all the traps of an elite team, but we haven’t really seen them take advantage of the fact that the stars struggle aggressively. It would have been good to look a little more teeth and step Dallas’ neck faster to make this team a competitor status. Instead, this series is dragging.
Ultimately, it feels like both the stars and AVs are victims of each other. Cannibalize each other in the brutal Seven Games series and become picked for those who move. That’s a shame, but it’s a bad break for two teams that are neither candidates nor pretenders, but both are incredibly good.
