The Conservative party’s stalled general election campaign has been dealt a potentially major blow after Nigel Farage announced his intention to stand for Parliament and lead the Reform Party for the next five years.
The former UKIP and Brexit Party leader said he had changed his mind during the election campaign and would stand in Clacton, Essex, insisting he did not want to disappoint his supporters.
Mr Farage also took over as leader of Reform UK from Richard Tice and has promised to stay in the position for the rest of the term of Parliament.
His announcement poses a direct threat to Clacton’s Conservative candidate, but it could also energise his party’s national campaign and split the right-wing vote in other constituencies.
There are also fears that Mr Farage could antagonise the Conservative party as it enters a fight for its survival after the election.
Farage is seeking victory in Clacton, where he was first elected as a UKIP MP in 2014 and where the Conservatives have a majority of 24,702 seats, but this will be his eighth attempt to enter Parliament – he has lost each of his previous seven times.
YouGov’s first MRP constituency forecasts, carried out before Mr Farage’s announcement, showed Keir Starmer could win a majority of 194 votes, surpassing Tony Blair’s 179 vote majority in 1997, in a further blow to Mr Sunak.
The re-allocation gave Labour 422 seats (up 222 from the 2019 election), the Conservatives 140 seats (down 232), the Liberal Democrats 48 seats (up 40) and the SNP 17 seats (down 31). A senior Conservative leader described Mr Farage’s re-election as an “existential” risk.
Speaking at a press conference in central London, the right-wing activist said he was witnessing a “rejection of the political class” across the country the likes of which had not been seen in modern times, and said he wanted to lead a “political rebellion”.
He also sought to portray Reform UK’s success as part of a “new phenomenon” in this weekend’s European elections, where far-right parties are expected to make gains. “I can promise you something is happening,” he said.
His decision will mean that debate over immigration will become even more prominent during the election cycle.
The Conservative government will on Tuesday announce a cap on the number of visas available per year in a bid to reduce overall immigration. The figure will be recommended by the Immigration Advisory Committee and then put to a vote by MPs.
Meanwhile, Starmer has pledged Labour will “close the door to Putin” by reducing Britain’s reliance on overseas fossil fuels, and will maintain a strong focus on national security.
The Prime Minister is due to say on Tuesday that his party’s plans to set up a publicly owned clean energy company, GB Energy, would help protect the UK from fuel price hikes like those that occurred after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Mr Farage was expected to stand in either Clacton or Thanet East in Kent, which includes much of his former constituency where he ran unsuccessfully for Parliament in 2015 and 2005.
But Clacton looks like the better option for Reform UK, despite Remain-backed Conservative candidate Giles Watling maintaining his majority of 24,702 votes.
Mr Farage suggested Reform UK could win more seats than the 3.9 million votes UKIP received in the 2015 general election before the Brexit referendum, but acknowledged this would be difficult without proportional representation.
Reform UK aims to take votes away from the Conservative party’s right wing and could split the vote in some close constituencies, allowing Labour to win in the centre.
“They’re split down the middle on policy and quite frankly there’s nothing to back them up on at the moment,” Farage said of the Conservatives, “so our aim in this election is to win millions of votes – far more than UKIP got in 2015.”
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But the return to the political forefront of a right-wing firebrand close to US presidential candidate Donald Trump will alarm even moderate conservatives. In an example of how he might run his campaign, Mr Farage described the UK election as an “immigration election”.
Conservative MPs warned that Reform UK’s success could lead the party to move further to the right in a bid to regain support, take a tougher line on the Rwanda plan and even promise to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights.
“It also increases the likelihood that we’ll put a stupid, full-blown ‘ECH Brexit policy’ in our manifesto,” one candidate said. “That’s attractive to one side of the market, but totally unattractive to the other. We need to remain attractive to both.”
They were pessimistic about the impact of the reforms on the Conservatives’ electoral chances: “The reforms will probably just confirm the worst-case scenario, meaning it will be very hard for the Conservatives to deliver the blows they need to put themselves in a better position.”
Another said Mr Farage’s decision was a “huge blow” to Mr Sunak. “He will undoubtedly have an impact on both sides but will probably have a bigger impact on the Conservative campaign. Reformists have always chipped away at the age group of the Conservative vote but their inroads will now be even bigger.”
It also reinforced the view among some Conservatives that Mr Sunak had made a mistake in deciding to hold the election on July 4th rather than in the autumn, when Mr Farage would likely be in the US supporting the Trump campaign.
The Conservative candidate said: “The Prime Minister’s decision was really stupid. Obviously really stupid. The Conservative party is about stability, they’re saying the economy is going to be good, and before anyone knows it they’re calling an election.”
“I can’t explain it. [deputy prime minister Oliver] Dowden’s argument won: things will get worse. Now show me how it gets worse.”
The former Brexit leader’s return could encourage disgruntled ex-Conservative donors to open up their purse strings, with Mr Farage saying the party had started to raise “significant amounts of money” since last week.
Those attending the Reform UK press conference included property developer Nick Candy, who has donated hundreds of thousands of pounds to the Conservative party in the past, and Charlie Mullins, founder of Pimlico Plumbers.
Reform UK’s new leader dodged questions about whether party members had been ignored in the backroom dealings that led to Mr Tice’s sacking. “Sometimes you have to take tough action,” he said.
