After another impressive rally in the eighth inning of Game 1 of the NLDS, the Mets have a chance to win the series 2-0 and return home on Sunday.
Phillies manager Rob Thomson made an interesting decision to start Christopher Sanchez ahead of Aaron Nola in Game 2.
Sanchez has been great down the stretch and is definitely the better starter at the moment. He also had an ERA of just 2.21 at Citizens Bank Park, compared to 5.02 on the road.
Oddsmakers believe the Phillies are less likely to win Sunday's matchup than they were in Game 1. The Phillies are -155 favorites after finishing Game 1 at -175, but their total remains unchanged at 7.5.
Mets vs. Phillies Game 2 odds
| team | money line | run line | over/under |
|---|---|---|---|
| mets | +130 | +1.5 (-160) | o7.5 (-115) |
| phillies | -155 | -1.5 (+135) | u7.5 (-105) |
Prediction for Game 2 between Mets and Phillies
The main argument against the decision to start Sanchez over Nola in this matchup would be the Mets' superior split between left-handed pitchers and right-handed pitchers.
The Mets had the fourth-best wRC+ against southpaws this season at 118, but against right-handed pitchers they had a wRC+ of 105.
Since August 1st, they have a wRC+ of 119 and an OPS of .769 against left-handed pitchers. During this period, he ranked 4th in BB/K ratio and 8th in hard hit rate at 33.6%.
Sanchez earned the right to start with his great form in the final stages. The Dominican native started the final eight games and posted a 2.50 ERA and 3.11 xFIP allowed. In that span, he maintained a K-BB percentage of 19.2 and an xBA success percentage of .235.
Sanchez hit 58 percent on ground balls this season, the third-highest mark among eligible starting pitchers, likely contributing to his overachieving xERA.
The Phillies also have hit left-handed pitchers significantly better than right-handed pitchers this season, which should work in favor of Luis Severino, who starts for the Mets on Sunday. Since July 1, Philadelphia ranks 19th in wRC+ of 100 against right-handed hitters.
Over his past 48 1/3 innings, Severino has a 3.17 ERA and a 3.45 xFIP. During this span, he held a Stuff+ rating of 113 and struck out 26.7% of the batters he faced.
Picks for Mets vs. Phillies Game 2
Game 1 had a total stake of just over 7.5 thanks to a string of late runs.
Both bullpens have performed very well, and it seems foolish to expect the Phillies, especially with their talented relievers, to be able to repeat Saturday's disaster.
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Considering the way both starting pitchers are pitching down the stretch and the quality of both teams' relievers, the 7.5 total seems too high and I think it's worth supporting a better under than -120.
Best bet: Less than 7.5 total runs (+100, ESPN bet)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in his articles to help bettors reach their own conclusions, but he's also up 180 units himself on the sports betting app's verified picks. Nick can be found at X @nickm_hockey.
