A contract extension with Noah Dobson has not been a top priority for the Islanders in what was supposed to be a really interesting offseason since general manager Lou Lamoriello signaled an openness to change on breakup day seven weeks ago.
Kyle McLean, Maxim Tsyplakov and Marcus Hogberg have already signed deals ahead of the up-and-coming defenseman, and with Dobson unable to sign until July 1, more deals could be made at next week’s draft.
Dobson’s contract extension will have no impact on whether the Islanders change course and, if so, the degree of change that will entail.
Still, this is arguably the most important item on Lamoriello’s to-do list this summer, much like Ilya Sorokin’s contract extension a year ago and Mathew Barzal’s two years ago.
Dobson is entering his age-25 season and certainly belongs in that class.
Any questions about Dobson’s value were asked and answered this past season as his on-ice time increased dramatically and he played against the toughest opponents after injuries ravaged the Islanders’ defense. Dobson proved he was more than up to the task, scoring 70 points and establishing himself as one of the best young defensemen in the league.
He’s a franchise, just as much as Barzal and Sorokin are franchises, and he’ll be paid accordingly.
“He’s getting better every year,” Lamoriello said on breakup day, “and I don’t think there’s a cap on his potential.”
“But like any young player, he’s developing. Every year he has success he gets a little more recognition and gets more attention. But there’s no doubt the potential is endless.”
Information regarding contract negotiations involving Lamoriello is scarce.
But recent history suggests the Islanders don’t like to drag things out during the season.
Sorokin signed the eight-year agreement on July 1 of last year.
Barzal signed a contract for eight seasons just days into the 2022 training camp.
Bo Holbert, who was acquired on Jan. 30, 2023, signed an eight-year contract on Feb. 5, the day before his Islanders debut.
The common thread here is that they both spent eight years re-signing with the same team, the longest period of time a player has ever done so.
That tenure would last until Dobson completed his age-32 season, hitting his peak with the Islanders.
Salaries are hard to predict, especially with the salary cap rising to $88 million next season and projected to rise to $92 million (about 110% of current levels) in 2025-26 when Dobson’s next contract takes effect.
It should continue to rise after that. A theme this summer will be how that affects all the signings.
The move was already announced in Vancouver earlier this week, with Filip Hronek signing an eight-year contract with a reported average annual salary of $7.25 million.
Hronek is two years older than Dobson and played a similar amount of time last season, but he wasn’t on the top power play unit and hasn’t been as productive offensively as Dobson.
Under a flat cap, a long-term extension for a player like Dobson would likely be worth just over $8 million per year.
Jake Sanderson signed an eight-year, $64.4 million contract with Ottawa last October, and Owen Power signed a seven-year, $58.45 million extension with Buffalo around the same time.
When Tampa tried to acquire Mikhail Sergachev on a long-term contract in the summer of 2022, the Lightning paid him $68 million over eight seasons.
Where does it stand now? Under a $92 million cap, Evolving Hockey projects Dobson’s extension to be worth an average of eight years and $10.52 million per year.
That would make him the Islanders’ highest-paid player and by far the highest-paid defenseman (the latter of which is surely what happens anyway).
This year will not be like the NBA’s summer of 2016, when a dramatic salary cap increase sent Kevin Durant to the Warriors, Timofey Mozgov signed with the Lakers for four years and $64 million just minutes into free agency, and teams overreacted to a new reality with some immediately absurd deals in place.
But it will be something.
Now is a good time to sign the contract.
It’s a good time for Noah Dobson.
