As we build our College Football Playoff portfolio throughout the season, we hope to take advantage of a slow-to-react market.
Last week we had UNLV coming off a road win against Power 4 rival Houston, and the Runnin' Rebels were 22/1 odds to make the CFP, but after their dominant 72-14 win over Utah Tech on Saturday they've dropped to 15/1 on FanDuel.
My stated goal during the preseason was to add a team in the 20/1 to 40/1 range to make the CFP or win a national championship, but there were some long shots that came on the market this week that are just too valuable at their current numbers.
Northern Illinois became the first MAC school to defeat an opponent ranked in the Associated Press top five.
The Huskies entered the season as 80/1 odds to make the CFP, and those odds remained unchanged after their landmark win over Notre Dame over the weekend.
As I said, this relatively new market has been very slow to adapt.
Is this a situation where multiple bookmakers are putting outdated numbers or is NIU still at a disadvantage against their G5 competitors? The former, and let me explain why.
First, there is a good chance that the Group of Five champions will go on a one-loss streak, which would require the committee to scrutinise their resumes.
A Notre Dame win might take some of the shine off, but the Irish schedule all but guarantees they'll finish the season ranked.
The real challenge for Northern Illinois is winning the MAC with just one loss this season. The good news is that the letdown following their biggest win was softened by a well-timed bye week.
The Huskies can enjoy their win in South Bend for the next week and get back on track before hosting Buffalo on Sept. 21.
Another schedule issue in their favor is the upcoming trip to North Carolina. The Wolfpack have been awful defensively through the first two weeks, giving up an average of 36 points per game and ranking 107th in total defense.
Another upset on the road in Raleigh could propel NIU into the top 15 of the national rankings in both polls.
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The new divisionless MAC format is another plus for NIU: Under the previous format, playing both Bowling Green and Toledo would have been disastrous, but a draw with the Falcons and Rockets leaves them with enough late-season games to handle games against Ball State, Western Michigan and Miami (Ohio) Rowdies.
On the field, this NIU team has the formula for consistent performances every week, with four stars on the offensive line and star running back Antalio Brown returning, and after two weeks, NIU is in the top 20 in rushing with a solid 251 yards per game on the ground.
Defensively, the Huskies have gotten better as 2023 has progressed, and they are riding that momentum. The veteran secondary held down Riley Leonard and the Notre Dame passing attack (163 yards, two interceptions).
The combination of a tenacious rushing attack and a “no fly zone” secondary is a winning formula going forward. This is not a team looking for flash success, relying on junior quarterback Ethan Hampton's hero ball moments.
Thomas Hammock also knows how to coach close games. Since 2021, he has won 12 games by one point, and that experience in tight, late situations will help NIU as it seeks to make a bid for the CFP.
