Timing is Key in Fantasy Baseball Trading

In fantasy baseball, timing can really make a difference, especially when it comes to making trades. Good managers know when to buy low and, just as importantly, when to sell high. It’s tempting to cling to players who are on a hot streak, but for sustained success, it’s crucial to recognize when their peak performance might not last.

Right now, two of the most talked-about names in the league are Byron Buxton and Jacob DeGrom.

Buxton has impressive stats at .279/.345/.553, with 17 home runs and 13 stolen bases. Many have been hoping he’d finally achieve a 30-30 season. However, if you’ve had the chance to own Buxton in the past, you likely understand that such a run may be fleeting.

So far this season, Buxton has already landed on the injured list twice, and we’re not even halfway through the year. Throughout his 11 years in Major League Baseball, he’s managed to play at least 100 games only twice. This isn’t just bad luck—it’s a trend.

He certainly has talent. Buxton possesses the explosive power and speed of a top-tier player, along with solid defensive skills when he’s on the field. Yet, therein lies the issue: he struggles to stay healthy.

Even if you typically adopt an “agnostic” approach to player drafts—which can help account for the unpredictability of injuries—it’s wise to reevaluate when you consider a player like Buxton, particularly given his injury history. Buxton may deliver solid numbers at a mid-round price, but it might be wiser to invest in a more reliable player. The ultimate goal is winning come September; no one will remember your roster’s strengths in June.

Switching gears to Texas, Jacob DeGrom is back, but barely. He has a striking 2.08 ERA over 95 ⅓ innings, including eight wins, and notably, a spectacular June with a 1.41 ERA over 32 innings. But let’s be honest—these innings are borrowed.

He hasn’t exceeded 100 innings in a single season since 2019, and we’re nearing that point now. While his strikeout rate still shows promise, it’s at its lowest since 2016, raising some concerns. He continues to strike out nearly a batter per inning, but this slight decline is a red flag. Although his velocity and command remain top-notch, this version of DeGrom may not be what it once was.

Considerations for the Future

With the hope of a scorching Texas summer and a potential playoff run for the Rangers, things could quickly turn sour. Whether they start managing DeGrom’s innings or he faces another stint on the injured list, the likelihood of him being a fully powered ace in September seems slim. Holding on to his previous elite performance may blind you to the recent patterns.

There’s no shame in selling high; that’s often what sets championship teams apart. Don’t wait for that third trip to the injured list or another shutdown in late August. Consider trading Buxton and DeGrom for players who can drive your team through the fantasy playoffs, allowing others to handle the fallout.

Trust our experience. Recognizing when to sell is key to winning the league.