NWSL Playoff Power Rankings: Confidence Meter

Eight teams began the NWSL playoffs hoping to win the championship. Now only four remain, and the semifinals are next.

Here’s how the confidence is spread across the remaining teams after the quarterfinals. Washington heads into the next round looking especially dangerous, though there are still reasons to be cautious about every side.

1. Washington Spirit: 4-1 win over Portland Thorns

Confidence: 50%. Next up: Utah Royals.

Washington had the most convincing quarterfinal performance by some distance. Utah’s upset of San Diego also means the Spirit have a chance to earn home-field advantage all the way through the final.

In the 4-1 win over Portland, Trinity Rodman and Clara Luvanga each contributed to three goals, while Mélissa Bethi added another. Washington controlled much of the match, leading in possession (59% to 41%), expected goals (2.38 to 0.89), shots (16 to 11), and touches in the opposition box (28 to 17).

Aside from a second-half lapse, it was the sort of attacking display Adrián González’s team badly needed. Maybe this is finally their year?

2. Kansas City Current: 1-0 win over Angel City FC

Confidence: 25%. Next up: Gotham FC.

The penalty decision that gave Kansas City the winning goal will probably remain the main talking point from this quarterfinal. Still, the Current were the better team, even if the result came in a way they might not have wanted.

Kansas City had the edge in possession (59% to 41%), expected goals (1.94 to 1.30), shots (21 to 14), and touches in the opposition box (42 to 29). The chances were there; the finishing, less so.

With Temwa Chawinga and Haley Hopkins up front, it seems unlikely the attack will stay quiet for long. And if they do, Michelle Cooper, Croix Bethune, Lo’eau LaBonta, or Vanessa DiBernardo could make the difference.

Can Kansas City overcome its 5-9-1 road record and beat the NWSL Shield winners away from home? That’s a much tougher question.

3. Gotham FC: 1-0 win over Seattle Reign

Confidence: 20%. Next up: Kansas City Current.

Gotham took an early lead in the fourth minute through an own goal and held on for a 1-0 victory. It wasn’t a pretty performance, but the defense did what it needed to do.

The attack, though, barely got going. Gotham managed just 0.16 expected goals and finished with fewer shots and touches in the opposition box than Seattle. Their offense was already a concern heading into the playoffs, and this match did little to ease it.

Gotham and Kansas City split their regular-season meetings. Now Gotham’s defense will face one of the league’s most productive attacks. Can the offense find another gear, or will the back line have to carry the team again?

4. Utah Royals: 1-0 win over San Diego Wave

Confidence: 5%. Next up: Washington Spirit.

The biggest surprise of the quarterfinals was Utah, making its first NWSL playoff appearance, knocking out second-seeded San Diego.

Kiana Palacios scored the only goal, and goalkeeper Mandy McGlynn, Kate Del Fava, and the rest of the Utah defense kept the Wave from answering.

The win ended a four-game winless streak. Utah will now try to win consecutive matches for the first time since July 25—a stretch covering 14 games.

There are some worrying signs, too. The Royals have been held below 1.0 expected goals in three straight matches and have scored one goal or fewer in five consecutive games. They’ve also been outperformed in key statistics over their last two outings.

Even with those trends, Utah found a way through the first round. Perhaps there’s another surprise left in them.

Semifinal Predictions

No. 3 Washington Spirit vs. No. 7 Utah Royals, Saturday, November 14, at Audi Field.

Pick: Washington Spirit

No. 1 Gotham FC vs. No. 4 Kansas City Current, Sunday, November 15, at Icahn Stadium.

Pick: Kansas City Current