New York State is in a tightly contested race that could determine which party controls the Legislature for years to come. Two years ago, New York surprisingly swept the state legislature with a Republican majority.
Currently, the Republicans have 220 and the Democrats have 211. The Republicans are aiming to retain control in the Nov. 5 election, while the Democrats, led by presidential candidate Kamala Harris, are aiming to retake power in the overwhelmingly Democratic state.
In the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans picked up four seats in New York's battleground districts, helping secure the Republican majority, but now these first-term incumbents face tough re-election battles.
The other three races are also considered competitive.
Democrats did win back one seat in a February special election, when Rep. Tom Suozzi recaptured the 3rd Congressional District, which covers parts of Nassau County and Queens, the seat vacated by first-term Republican Rep. George Santos, a habitual liar and convicted fraudster, who was ousted from office.
Suozzi previously represented the district but ran unsuccessfully for governor and will not seek reelection in 2022.
Political insiders say key factors in this year's race will include how well former Republican President Donald Trump and Harris perform as top candidates in purple districts and how that will affect lower-tier races.
This is also the first presidential election since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 1973, leaving abortion law up to states.
Over the summer, the House Democratic Committee Super PAC and other allies launched an onslaught, spending millions of dollars on television ads accusing Republicans of misogyny. Incumbent campaigns ran counter-ads claiming they would oppose imposing a national abortion ban.
New York has some of the strictest abortion rights laws in the country.
Republicans say voters support them on key issues that affect their lives and that a Harris-Biden administration would put Democrats on the defensive on an inflationary economy, crime and illegal immigration.
The Democrats are confident of winning seats.
“With eight weeks until Election Day, New York Democrats are running a robust campaign to reach every voter possible across Long Island, the Hudson Valley and Central New York,” said Ellie Dougherty, spokeswoman for the Democratic House Campaign Committee.
“Meanwhile, his Republican opponent is running on a dismal record of restricting abortion rights, cutting Social Security and Medicare, and defunding law enforcement. That's why he's panicking about a widening funding gap and losing momentum in House battlegrounds.”
State Republican Party Chairman Ed Cox said the key issues that concern a wide range of voters — the economy, illegal immigration and crime — favor Republicans.
“Inflation has reduced workers' incomes by between 5 and 15 percent,” Cox said.
He also said Republican Rep. Brandon Williams' reelection effort “looks better” than the Cook Political Report rankings suggest.
of Four races to watchAccording to the Cook Political Report rankings:
District 4: (Suffolk/East End)
Republican Congressman Anthony D'Esposito
Democrat Laura Gillen (former Hempstead Mayor)
Rating: 50/50.
District 17: (Lower Hudson Valley: Rockland, Westchester, Putnam)
Republican Congressman Mike Lawler
Former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones:
Rating: 50/50
District 19: (Upper Hudson Valley/Southern Tier: Broome, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland, Delaware, Greene, Sullivan, Tioga and Tompkins counties)
2022 rematch:
Republican Congressman Mark Molinaro
Democrat Josh Riley
Rating: 50/50
District 22: (Syracuse area – Onondaga, Oneida, and Madison counties)
Republican Congressman Brandon Williams, Navy submarine officer and businessman
Democrat John Mannion, current state senator and former teacher
Rating: Leaning towards Democrats
The other three races considered competitive, with incumbents likely to have the advantage, are:
District 1: (Suffolk/East End)
Republican Congressman Nick La Rota
Democrat John Avlon
Rating: Likely Republican
District 3: (Nassau, Queens)
Democratic Congressman Tom Suozzi
Republican Mike LiPetri
Rating: Likely to support Democrats
District 18: (Dutchess, Orange County)
Democratic Congressman Pat Ryan
Republican Allison Esposito (former New York State Deputy Inspector)
Rating: Leaning towards Democrats
