The recent spike in subway violence comes months after the number of subway police officers plummeted to levels not seen in years, according to data reviewed by the Post.
The analysis also shows that in the past, when police patrols in subways increased, crime fell by up to 8%.
The examination of police powers in the subways comes after three underground murders occurred in a month, with the New York City Police Department adding 1,000 officers per day and reinstating its presence in the subway police system. This was done in response to the strengthening.
This is the worst outbreak of violence since October 2022, when the subway crackdown last began.
This police beef up, announced by Gov. Kathy Hochul and Mayor Eric Adams, comes after three homicides in a month and nine homicides in the year, and more predominantly Asian-Americans. The announcement came after a spate of hate crimes targeting people hit the headlines, and it started almost immediately.
Data shows that the police surge will begin to revise the crime rate downward by December 2022, with 2.23 felonies per million passengers, compared to 2.26 the previous month.
But by October of the following year, Metro Police patrols had fallen to levels not seen since the de Blasio administration, and the crime rate had risen to 2.32, the Post editorial says.
The analysis looked at the number of patrols reported in the system each month from November 2021 to December 2023 and compared it to subway ridership and the number of major crimes reported.
This is the first time that a direct comparison has been made between the number of subway police officers, the number of passengers, and the number of crimes committed on a monthly basis.
Two years of data suggest a close correlation between the number of underground patrols and crime rates. The crime rate incorporates the number of passengers per month and compares it to the number of crimes.
- After months of less than 100,000 patrols, the crime rate was 2.25 per million passengers.
- After several months of conducting 100,000 to 124,999 patrols, the crime rate was 2.16 crimes per million passengers.
- After several months of more than 125,000 patrols, the crime rate was 2.06 per million passengers.
This means that months with 125,000 or more underground patrols had an average of 8.4% fewer crimes than months with fewer than 100,000 patrols.
New York City Police Department data shows that the majority of underground shifts are being performed by officers typically assigned to above-ground duties, many of whom are likely working overtime. Law enforcement officials warn this is not a sustainable strategy.
“While immediate results may be promising, long-term viability is shaky under the weight of over-reliance on an already overburdened and overly expensive police force,” the official said. Stated.
“Overtime not only strains police resources and morale, it also places an unsustainable burden on taxpayer funds.”
NYPD spending and overtime have come under scrutiny in recent months after the Adams administration decided to cut spending in other areas such as libraries and caused an uproar by suspending Sunday services. It is being
“More than a thousand additional officers are now deployed to the transit system each day. This deployment will be continually adjusted as new needs arise elsewhere within the NYPD.” said an NYPD spokesperson, who otherwise declined to comment on the findings. .
The 2022 Metro Police surge was funded by a $60 million state grant and the promise of another $70 million in city funding.
Records show that police conducted 143,000 patrols of stations and trains in October 2022, an increase of 31,000 from 112,000 the previous month.
Authorities further increased their presence in November of the same year, recording 155,000 people patrolling underground.
The crime rate began to decline in December 2022, and by January 2023, the third month of the surge in police enforcement, it had fallen to 1.63 crimes per million passengers.
In February and March 2023, the crime index per million passengers increased again between 2 and 2.1, respectively, and in April and May 2023 it decreased again, with the crime index per million passengers They were 1.77 and 1.85.
By June 2023, the staffing surge had largely subsided, with the system completing just 90,000 visits that month, according to the data.
“It’s about sustainability and there’s no secret to it. We’ve talked about it,” Michael Kemper, head of the NYPD’s transportation division, said this week about why subways and cops are doing the same thing twice in two years. When asked if he had returned to his position, he answered:
“Crime spiked at the end of 2022 and huge investments were made,” he continued.
“Officers were deployed and crime quickly stabilized.”
When asked why the suspension occurred, Kemper said, “It was funded by money and overtime.”
The number of patrols decreased again to 86,000 in July 2023, 87,000 in August, and bottomed out at 83,000 in September.
It was also around this time that the crime rate began to rise noticeably, reaching 1.83 in September 2023, and rising 16% to 2.14 in the following month, October.
The number of underground patrols in the same month was only 86,000.
This consecutive month had the lowest number of patrols in the system since the end of the de Blasio administration. According to police records, there were 82,000 patrols in November 2021, compared to 82,000 in November 2021, due to the Democratic primary and subsequent mayoral election, which were dominated by questions about crime and subway safety. In December 2021, there were just 77,000.
In November 2023, the crime rate rose again, with a crime index of 2.32 per million passengers, a further 8% increase.
That same month, authorities began to quietly increase the number of underground patrols again in November and December 2023, with 104,000 and 111,000 patrols reported respectively, compared to police that had started the previous year and continued into the spring. remains far below the rapid increase in
The crime rate fell to 1.97 crimes per million passengers in December 2023, but rose again in January to 2.43 crimes per million passengers.
Data on patrol numbers for January and February will not be released until spring.
