Nate Cohn, chief political analyst for the New York Times, predicts that a Donald Trump victory on Election Day could spell the death of the Democratic Party as we know it.
Cohn said in his Election Day newsletter. outlined There are four election outcomes he has in mind: a landslide victory for Kamala Harris, a repeat of 2020 (close races in swing states), and a repeat of 2022 ( Republicans won the popular vote but lost key races.), or a decisive victory for Trump.
“This scenario will reveal how much we have destroyed the Democratic Party as we knew it.”
The ultimate outcome could have a bigger impact on the future of American politics than people realize, Cohn explained.
According to Cohn, a theoretical analysis of this election “should result in a Republican victory.” What is the reason? The economic downturn, President Joe Biden's unpopularity, and the fact that voters believe this country is heading in the wrong direction. Cohn also said Republicans have an advantage in party identification, party registration, and Election Day turnout in battleground states, explaining that “the signs of a Republican victory have been growing for years.”
Worse, Cohn said, polls may be underestimating President Trump again, just as they did in 2016 and 2020.
“The pollsters haven't found a convincing explanation for what went wrong. The simplest is that Trump hasn't been able to gain enough support among his disinterested supporters. “Despite efforts over the past eight years, we may simply not be able to solve this problem,” he wrote.
“In this scenario, Harris' apparent strength among white and older voters, or her resilience in the Midwestern battlegrounds, would be just another polling mirage. 4 years ago and in the very same states where the polls were so wrong eight years ago,” Cohn explained. “When combined with Trump's support among young, black, and Hispanic voters, this ultimately amounts to a decisive victory for Trump.”
If this scenario plays out on Election Day, Cohn predicted, it would usher in a “new era in politics” defined by historic voter realignment.
“The rise of Trump's brand of conservative populism has transformed American politics. It has redefined the fundamental political opposition between the two parties. It has led to major demographic changes, with Trump initially “Democrats have made gains among nonwhite voters among white college graduates,” Cohn wrote, “with big gains among the working class and now big gains among the white working class.” “If this shift continues after Trump takes office, historians may look back and say that the outcome of 2024 was the culmination of the populist realignment that Trump unleashed a decade ago.”
According to Cohn, the result of that realignment is not only a Republican Party that looks nothing like the Republican Party of old, but also the death of the modern Democratic Party.
“It has long been clear that Trump's rise has destroyed the Republican Party as we knew it,” Cohn wrote. “This scenario will reveal the extent to which we have destroyed the Democratic Party as we knew it.”
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