The Yankees have started the 2024 season with a record of 34 wins and 17 losses and are on a roll. And the oddsmakers believe it, too.
After opening the year with a near three-way tie atop the American League odds board, they took over the field and established themselves as clear favorites to win.
Currently, BetMGM has them priced at +250 to win the American League championship, significantly higher than the Orioles’ runner-up at +425, so things may be getting a bit out of control.
It’s no secret that the Yankees are hoping to get ace Gerrit Cole back and have Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and rising star Anthony Volpe in the lineup.
However, there may be some newcomers who are playing beyond their ability.
No one expected the Yankees to post the league’s best ERA in the starting rotation without Cole, but Lewis Gil and Clark Schmidt have performed well thus far.
But there are signs the starting pitching staff may be more blessed with luck than it is with skill.
Fangraphs paints a picture of the Yankees’ rotation, especially Schmidt and Carlos Rodon, who have the best ERA of any American League starting pitcher but have a home run/fly ball rate of over 11 percent. There is.
Rodon, in particular, could suffer from a decline in his performance, with an FIP of 4.46, which is significantly higher than his ERA of 3.27.
Gill recorded an astonishing 80.3% runner-on-base percentage in his starting pitching against the Mariners on Thursday. This is the 25th highest number among all teams. Additionally, his 4.96 walks per nine innings is the fifth-highest number among pitchers who have pitched 40 or more innings.
American League Pennant Odds
| team | odds |
|---|---|
| yankees | +250 |
| Orioles | +425 |
| astros | +700 |
| mariners | +750 |
| Rangers | +800 |
| twins | 11/1 |
| guardian | 11/1 |
Schmidt’s stellar 2.56 ERA is likely to regress to some extent as he’s posted a below-average 3.53 FIP and 11.3% HR/FB rate, and his average exit velocity is nothing to write home about either (80th percentile per Statcast).
These success stories from the pitching staff, along with impressive seasons from Alex Verdugo and Jose Trevino on the offensive side, have led many to forget that this team only went 82-80 in 2023.
And yes, Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner has said the current salary situation is unsustainable, but it doesn’t seem like the Yankees have any appetite to eat into payroll before the trade deadline.
Even if Luke Weaver is great, the Yankees should consider trading for A’s closer Mason Miller to help a bullpen that lacks reliable pieces.
With several key members of their starting rotation underperforming, the Yankees will need to make some moves before the deadline if they want to have a chance to win what oddsmakers project will be a huge American League pennant prize.
We all remember that the 2022 Yankees started 61-23, but lost momentum by the end of the season, losing to the Astros in the American League Championship Series.
The Yankees will need some help at the trade deadline to avoid a similar disappointment after a very strong start to the year.
Learn everything you need to know about MLB betting
According to Tankasson, the Bombers are currently in the middle of the pack (16th) with the ninth-toughest remaining schedule.
At current prices, it’s hard to argue with betting elsewhere, especially the in-form Astros, who are as high as +850 on DraftKings and have a proven postseason record.
