Ohio State’s 30-18 loss to USC on Saturday was a sobering reminder of how much the Buckeyes’ national title hopes may depend on their offense finding a way forward without Julian Sayin.
Sayin injured his elbow during the game against Indiana two weeks ago. Since then, Ohio State’s quarterback plans have fallen to Luke Fahey and freshman Taven St. Clair. There’s been plenty of anxiety around Columbus, and it’s understandable: Ryan Day’s offense had leaned heavily on the connection between Sayin and Jeremiah Smith.
That pairing gave opposing defenses a difficult choice. Double-team Smith and leave another defender out of the picture, or give the receiver room to work. Against USC, Ohio State still managed 484 yards, but the offensive line struggled to protect Fahey, and the Buckeyes failed to make the most of their chances in the red zone.
Smith’s value was apparent in the Indiana game, when Sayin was emerging as a leading Heisman contender. A couple of weeks later, though, Ohio State looked disjointed for much of the night in Los Angeles. The Buckeyes didn’t score a touchdown until the fourth quarter, when Smith caught a five-yard pass with 2:12 left.
It’s fair to wonder what Ohio State might have looked like with Sayin healthy. The loss to USC has also raised questions about the team’s playoff prospects and the Big Ten’s standing ahead of the first CFP rankings of the season. If Indiana had won their earlier matchup, the Buckeyes might be in even more troubling shape.
Smith had been in a strong position in the Heisman conversation before Sayin’s injury. He’s still a talented receiver, of course, but without a quarterback who can consistently get him the ball downfield, he may need some extraordinary performances to stay in the picture. He’s known for putting the team first, but the injury has plainly changed the outlook for his season.
Ohio State may not be at the point Florida State reached after losing Jordan Travis to injury, when the Seminoles were left out of the national championship game. Still, the comparison is hard to ignore. The Buckeyes have five weeks left, with games against Northwestern, Oregon, Nebraska and Michigan on the schedule.
Can this offense avoid another loss? Maybe. But Northwestern and Oregon have enough talent to cause problems in Columbus, and Nebraska has a knack for making games unpredictable. Ohio State’s defense may not be able to carry the team through November if the offense continues to struggle. Smith and running back Bo Jackson can only do so much without a quarterback playing with confidence.
USC deserves credit for the win. The Trojans had just lost to Wisconsin, and questions about coach Lincoln Riley’s future had been building. The talk of Riley potentially coaching elsewhere next season had grown loud enough that he faced questions about it throughout the week.
The win gives USC a route to the postseason, though the schedule won’t make it easy. After a bye, the Trojans visit Indiana, host Maryland and then finish the season against UCLA. They could win out if they keep playing this way, but one win isn’t enough to make them an easy team to trust. They still have to show they can sustain it.
