We are now in full swing with college basketball conference play.
March is almost here.
That means high-level college basketball action every night and week.
This tilt between Ole Miss and Tennessee counts as 1.
Chris Beard worked his magic in his debut year at Oxford, leading the Rebels to a perfect 13-0 non-conference record.
They don't play the toughest schedule, but they have three wins in the KenPom Top 100 against North Carolina State, Memphis, and UCF.
Even if the Vols can't beat the most elite non-conference opponents (Purdue, Kansas, North Carolina), Tennessee still looks like an elite team.
Still, they beat everyone else and had two wins in Quad 1 (Wisconsin, Illinois).
Ole Miss' record is overrated at 13-0, but I hesitate to think that a battle between two defense-oriented teams will lead to a crushing defeat.
Ole Miss vs. Tennessee Prediction
(6 p.m. ET, SEC Network)
Tennessee boasts an elite defense. The Vols will always have an elite college basketball defense under coach Rick Barnes.
However, they still struggle to generate consistent offense.
They weren't able to outperform elite offenses as planned, falling short of 70 points against Purdue and Kansas.
Their only consistent offense is using off-ball screens to flick out Dalton Knecht, who scores over 15 points per game and scores over 1.1 PPP (73rd percentile) off screens. There is.
He is a solid 3-level scorer with a deep bag and a smooth shooting stroke.
Here's the problem. Ole Miss has the best off-ball screen defense in the nation. seriously.
Rebel only allows .35 PPP in these sets. Beard's no-middle defense scheme puts everything on ice.
Tennessee's Jonas Aidoo is becoming an elite off-ball cutter.
Still, he relentlessly shoots paint buckets behind two 7-foot inside defenders (Jamarion Sharpe and Moussa Cissé) and two tall, athletic wing defenders (Jaimin Brakefield and Allen Flanigan). With Beard's no-middle scheme, it is difficult to cut and enter.
Ole Miss' offense is still very limited, and the Rebels are expected to take a significant step back in shooting, and won't be shooting 40 percent from 3 forever.
Still, I think they have some general advantages offensively.
Ole Miss runs the floor in transition and scores in isolation in the half court.
Tennessee, on the other hand, has only average transitions (1.00 PPP allowed, 52nd percentile) and isolation (0.77 PPP allowed, 49th percentile).
The Rebels also utilize off-ball screen action in the half court.
Tennessee was elite at defending these sets (0.58 PPP allowed, 93rd percentile), but ShotQuality believes it was smoke and mirrors, marking a significant setback based on the “quality” of attempts allowed. (acceptable PPP 1.07, 261st nationally).
I think Tennessee will have a hard time using Knecht and Aidoo here.
I don't have much faith in Ole Miss' offense, but the Rebels still have a way to score.
At the end of the day, I'm betting on this game two ways.
I'm betting on Ole Miss to take the points and the under. It should be a low-scoring rock fight that ends in an 8-10 point Tennessee win.
For what it's worth, Ole Miss has covered three of the last four meetings with Tennessee, and the five in a row between those two have been well below the final total.
The Rebels are a much different team under Coach Beard, but these teams generally play low-scoring, close ball games.
Ole Miss vs. Tennessee Pick
Ole Miss +13 | Under 143
