There’s a notorious starting gate number that has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner in its 151 years of existence.
This gate number, or post position as it’s officially known, is chosen randomly. Interestingly, betting odds fluctuate based on the horse’s starting position and how well it performs from there. There’s a particular post, which hasn’t seen a winner since 1986, that tends to have the biggest odds shift, that being the outermost position.
On the flip side, post position 5 has an impressive record with 10 wins, but the last significant victory was in 2017—that’s when it became the only gate without a first-place finish recently.
So, could this year break the curse? Sandman is jockeyed by the well-respected Jose L. Ortiz, who initially drew post position 17 with enticing 5-1 odds. However, things took a turn when two horses were scratched, pushing Ortiz’s horse, “Chunk of Gold,” to 30-1 odds from the 17th position.
A notable contender is 3-year-old Grey/Lone Colt, who recently finished strong in the Louisiana Derby. His combination of a closing running style, stamina, and refined form makes him a compelling long-shot candidate for the Derby.
As of Friday afternoon, the favorite, Journalism, has odds of 3-1 and is set to start from post 7, a position that has produced eight winners, including Mandaloun in 2021.
Here’s a rundown of the win records for each post position:
| Post | Record (Win/Place/Show) | Win % | Avg. Finish | Last Winner | Last Top 5 |
| 1 | 95-8-5-5 | 8.4% | 8.20 | Ferdinand (1986) | Hit Show (5th, 2023) |
| 2 | 95-7-6-13 | 7.4% | 8.13 | Affirmation (1978) | Sierra Leone (2nd, 2024) |
| 3 | 95-6-8-8 | 6.3% | 8.19 | Mystik Dan (2024) | Mystik Dan (1st, 2024) |
| 4 | 95-5-6-4 | 5.3% | 8.72 | Super Saver (2010) | Catching Freedom (April 2024) |
| 5 | 95-10-8-4 | 10.5% | 7.45 | I Always Dream (2017) | Impossible (4th, 2019) |
| 6 | 95-2-8-3 | 2.1% | 9.55 | Sea Hero (1993) | O Besos (4th, 2021) |
| 7 | 94-8-6-6 | 8.5% | 7.87 | Mandaloun (2021) | Mandaloon (1st, 2021) |
| 8 | 94-9-5-5 | 9.6% | 8.57 | Magician (2023) | Mage (1st, 2023) |
| 9 | 91-4-6-8 | 4.4% | 8.63 | Reveridge (1972) | Disarming (4th, 2023) |
| 10 | 88-9-6-11 | 10.2% | 7.72 | Giacomo (2005) | Password (5th, 2024) |
| 11 | 84-2-6-4 | 2.4% | 9.06 | Winning Colors (1988) | Forever Young (3rd, 2024) |
| 12 | 80-3-3-4 | 3.8% | 9.60 | Canonero II (1971) | Angel of Empire (3rd, 2023) |
| 13 | 78-5-5-7 | 6.4% | 8.24 | Nyquist (2016) | Simplification (4th, 2022) |
| 14 | 68-2-6-6 | 2.9% | 9.21 | Carry Bag (1961) | Essential Quality (3rd, 2021) |
| 15 | 63-6-2-1 | 9.5% | 10.22 | Authentic (2020) | Authentic (1st, 2020) |
| 16 | 52-4-3-3 | 7.7% | 10.27 | Animal Kingdom (2011) | Honor AP (4th, 2020) |
| 17 | 45-0-1-2 | 0.0% | 11.24 | Don’t Get Mad (4th, 2005) | |
| 18 | 37-2-4-0 | 5.4% | 9.43 | Country House (2019) | Country House (1st, 2019) |
| 19 | 31-1-1-0 | 3.2% | 12.32 | I Have Another (2012) | The Evil Strong (4th, 2014) |
| 20 | 19-2-0-1 | 10.5% | 11.05 | Rich Strike (2022) | Rich Strike (1st, 2022) |
While some gamblers may shy away from particular posts, opinions differ on whether the statistics truly indicate a disadvantage.
Michael Dempsey, a horse racing analyst, noted that he would actually prefer the 17th post over some inner positions, suggesting that the poor win record might just be a statistical fluke. “I don’t believe external posts are at a disadvantage,” Dempsey mentioned. “If I liked a horse, I wouldn’t be worried about it drawing post 17, 18, or 19.”
