This is an election year. Donald Trump and other Republican leaders have refused to state that they will accept the results of the November election. Trump has called the people who stormed the Capitol on January 6th “warriors.”
There isGrowing concernsThis year’s elections may lead to political violence or even be determined by it.
My colleagues and I treat violence, including political violence, as a health issue.That’s not conceptually unreasonable.Large-scale political violence could kill or injure thousands of people and have a range of negative effects on American society that could last for generations.
The best approach to intervening in these issues starts with getting on the ground and understanding the problems more deeply. Since 2022, our group has been conducting large-scale, annual, nationally representative, longitudinal surveys of Americans’ support for political violence and their personal willingness to participate.
Many of our findings are of serious concern. In 2022,Nearly one-third of participants (32.8%)It was believed that violence was usually or always justified in order to achieve at least one political objective.
Some groups were much more likely to support political violence than others. Republican and MAGA-supporting Republicans In particular, those who support Q Anon, White supremacist movement, Christian nationalists And the other extreme Right-wing groups and movements; and Firearm Owners — But unless you own an assault rifle, bought a gun during the COVID pandemic, or regularly carry a loaded gun in public, the difference is slim.
The results for 2023 are:The list has grownThey include racists, sexists, xenophobes, homophobes, transphobes, Islamophobes and anti-Semites.
In most cases, participants who supported political violence were also more willing to use violence themselves: For example, 8.8% of gun owners who regularly carry a loaded gun in public believed they were very or extremely likely to become a mass shooter in the future, compared with just 0.5% of gun owners who never carry a gun.They will shoot someoneTo further political objectives.
Let’s consider what this finding means.9 percent of gun ownersOur research shows that in 2021Firearm owners account for 28.8% of all adults.In the United States, armed individuals willing to engage in at least potentially deadly political violence will be present in large numbers in public places across the United States every day.
We also asked about the civil war.13.7 percent of participantsThey strongly or very strongly agreed that “There will be a civil war in the United States within the next few years.”
We were surprised by this,Further investigation in 2023Only 5.7% of respondents believed a civil war would occur (2023 is not an election year), but of those who did believe this, 38.4% strongly or very strongly agreed that “the United States needs a civil war to set things right.”
While conducting and reporting this research can sometimes feel like staring into the abyss, it’s not all bad news.
Two-thirds of 2022 participantsandThree-quarters in 2023They denied that political violence is justified in general or for any particular purpose. Of the participants who believed that violence was justified in at least one case, the majority (approximately70 percent by 2022and60 percent by 2023) were unwilling to tackle it themselves. These findings provide reason for hope and a way forward.
First, let’s acknowledge that our tendency toward violence this year is not likely to correct itself. Instead, as the election approaches, the stakes will become clearer, the rhetoric will intensify, and the willingness to act by any means necessary will almost certainly intensify.
But nowPlanning to emigratethe time for action is now: those of us who reject political violence must express our opposition again and again, and as publicly as possible.Create or join a movementPeople pay attention to what they dofamily,friend,colleague,Social Media Contactswell knownCelebritiesTo tell.
Pay attention to what others say, too.If you see something, say somethingAny one of us can be the person in the best position to pull someone back from a cliff or warn the authorities when an act of political violence is being planned.
Our job is to ensure that violence does not determine the outcome of this year’s election — to ensure that 2024 does not become the year when the term “battleground state” takes on new, bloodier meaning.
It starts with each of us making the decision, “If we can avoid it,” and then acting on that decision.
Galen Wintemute, MD, MPH, is a distinguished professor of emergency medicine at the University of California, Davis and director of the California Firearm Violence Research Center.
