OPEC+ Aims to Regain Market Share
The recent focus of OPEC+ seems to be centered around recovering market share, especially after moving a scheduled event from July 6th due to the Muslim observance of Ashura. Now, the group plans to ramp up production by an additional 411,000 barrels per day (b/d).
Throughout the 2010s, OPEC+ enjoyed a market share above 30%, but it dipped below that mark after the fourth quarter of 2019, currently resting at about 27%. Interestingly, countries like Saudi Arabia are prepared to accept lower prices in their bid to reclaim this market presence.
In June, production saw an increase of 360,000 b/d, bringing the total to an average of 28 million b/d. Much of this increase came from Saudi Arabia, according to a Bloomberg analysis.
Last month, Saudi Arabia’s oil exports dramatically climbed beyond the production returns from OPEC+, adding 441,000 b/d, while Kuwait reported its highest output since late 2023.
American Shale Executives Speak Out
Meanwhile, an examination of second-quarter drilling activity prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reveals a decline in drilling across the U.S. Many oil executives have expressed disappointment with Donald Trump’s policies regarding oil production.
Although they support a break-even price of $62 to $64 per barrel for new wells, these companies are grappling with a cost increase of 4-6% for steel, attributing this challenge to the Trump administration’s commitment to keeping oil prices around $50 per barrel.
Data shows that the Oil Operations Index from the Dallas Fed has dropped from +3.8 in early 2025 to -8.1. Alarmingly, half of Southern drilling executives are planning to drill less than initially intended for 2025, with 26% indicating significant cuts in operations.
The U.S. Energy Information Agency projects that oil production will average around 13.415 million b/d in 2025, and may dip to 12.296 million b/d in 2026.
Canadian Oil Sands Face Wildfire Threats
In Canada, wildfires are causing serious concerns for oil sands producers, particularly in the Fort McMurray region, which is the largest production area in Alberta.
Recent statistics indicate that oil production in the province hit its lowest since May 2023, averaging 3.61 million b/d. This reduction was partly driven by some companies in the Cold Lake area choosing to cut back their production by 350,000 b/d in late June.
Moreover, the TMX Pipeline has experienced three consecutive months of declining flow, with only 380,000 b/d exported last month. Interestingly, despite these challenges, the prices for heavy crude in Canada are on the rise as companies struggle to boost production.
U.S. Natural Gas Hits Record Highs
Amid a national heat wave in late June, U.S. natural gas producers ramped up their output, hitting a new high of 107 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d).
Following recent maintenance at the Sabine Pass LNG facility, demand is expected to recover, keeping production levels high, especially with warmer temperatures affecting most of the U.S.
By mid-July, gas-to-power consumption is predicted to rise to 46 bcf/d, a significant leap compared to June’s average of 38.8 bcf/d. Presently, gas production stands at around $3.4 per MMBTU, which is below the first half of 2025 average of $3.66.
Fluctuating Copper Prices
This year, copper prices have seen significant volatility, influenced by the uncertainty around U.S. import tariffs. The LME three-month contract reached a high of $10,020 per metric ton recently.
While a weaker dollar may benefit industrial metals, market sentiment remains mixed on how U.S. copper imports could affect future tariff scenarios. U.S. copper inventories have risen significantly, but LME stocks have sharply declined, suggesting a potential upcoming short squeeze.
Egypt’s Energy Challenges
As Egypt struggles to meet its energy needs, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran adds pressure. Egypt found itself having to import LNG and fuel oil, reaching a historical high of 230,000 b/d in June.
The tension surrounding energy supplies from the Israeli Laviathan field emphasizes the challenges Egypt faces, as they seem increasingly reliant on Israel for gas to keep operations running smoothly, especially following normalization efforts this month.
Platinum Prices on the Rise
In market news, platinum has emerged as a standout performer lately, with hedge funds showing a notable increase in interest. The price has surged to an 11-year high of $1,432 per ounce due to weak production from South Africa.
Interestingly, China’s imports of platinum have also risen significantly, marking a high point not seen in several years. However, factors such as potential tariffs and decreasing forecasts in car production could impact future demand.
