OPEC+ Maintains Steady Oil Production Targets for November

OPEC+ has decided to keep its oil production targets unchanged for November, as stated in a recent meeting, aligning with the expectation that any significant adjustments to output policies are probably not going to happen until next year.

A brief online meeting on Sunday included seven key members of the group, which encompasses the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia. The core members involved in this decision were Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman.

OPEC+ producers from the Gulf have been operating at levels significantly below their set targets, largely due to ongoing export disruptions stemming from the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. In fact, exports have been fluctuating between 60% and 80% of normal levels in recent months.

“The OPEC+ group of seven has kept their production ceilings stable, which is what the market anticipated. However, despite increased flows through the Strait of Hormuz, their output remains well below the quotas,” noted UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. He also mentioned that this situation keeps the oil market tight.

Oil prices saw a drop on Friday, following an agreement among European leaders to fulfill President Trump’s request for the release of diesel reserves. Nevertheless, Brent crude is staying above $100 a barrel, a notable increase from about $73 prior to the outbreak of the Iran war in late February.

Additionally, the conflict in Iran has postponed the group’s review of output capacity, which is crucial for determining output quotas for 2027. This delay has created uncertainty regarding future production estimates, as reported by industry sources last week.

Throughout much of 2026, OPEC+ has raised output targets following years of production cuts, yet most of these increases have remained theoretical due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

According to OPEC data, the seven core members produced 25 million barrels per day in August, which is an increase of 630,000 bpd compared to July. However, this output is still approximately 5 million bpd less than the prewar levels seen in February.

The next meeting for OPEC+ is scheduled for November 1.

Currently, OPEC+ maintains about 2 million bpd in output cuts across most of its members. Changes to output will likely be contingent on the results of the capacity review, and major adjustments aren’t expected before 2027, as sources have indicated.

On the same day, a separate ministerial group within OPEC+, known as the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), convened to review market conditions, although they do not have a say in policy decisions.