Sports betting is more about science than the actual game.
Sure, you can take inspiration from the gameplay and story, but you can't bet on those claims alone.
Your bet needs to have some mathematical backing.
The betting trends and system are a great example of how to bet on the NFL.
These trends have theories and stories that manufacturers who use databases have invented. Action Labwe will collect the right data that will help us track whether this is a profitable betting system or not.
Below are some examples that help clarify why math is the foundation for profitable betting: All data dates back to 2003.
All odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook.
2024 NFL betting trends to watch
Short money line bet on an early season divisional round underdog (94-94-2, +41.7 units, 22% return on investment)
According to Action Labs, the theory goes like this:
“Early in the season, the strength of teams is still unknown. Division teams have a good idea of what their opponents are going to do and have a better chance of pulling off an upset.”
The bet is on teams that are underdogs by less than a touchdown in divisional games during the first three weeks of the NFL regular season.
There are several games this season that qualify here.
- Raiders (+135) vs. Chargers (Week 1)
- Colts (+115) vs. Texans (Week 1)
- Panthers (+164) vs. Saints (Week 1)
- Bills (-105) vs. Dolphins (Week 2, “Thursday Night Football”)
- Giants (+120) vs. Commanders (Week 2)
- Cardinals (+114) vs. Rams (Week 2)
Do you bet on the NFL?
Against spread bets on road underdogs with low game totals after a bad season (368-261-16+92.67 units, 15 percent return on investment)
Commenting on this trend, Action Labs writes:
“The system appears to take advantage of the recognition that teams may not be very good based on how they performed last season. Smaller teams are covering at a very high percentage when the total is not that high, and they have removed 'Thursday Night Football' games to avoid short-term turnarounds.”
Below are some early examples of underdogs with six or fewer wins in the previous season and under-touchdown spreads in games with fewer than 50 points total.
- Cardinals (+6) vs. Bills (Week 1)
- Commanders (+3) vs Buccaneers (Week 1)
- Panthers (+4) vs. Saints (Week 1)
- Titans (+4.5) vs. Bears (Week 1)
- Giants (+2.5) vs. Commanders (Week 2)
Betting on division unders in the second half of the season and excluding dome games often results in higher scores (183-123-5, +50.59 units, 17% return on investment)
It would be wise to bet on November and December matches to fall below the projected totals, but keep in mind that we are only looking at outdoor matches here.
This means betting the under on nearly every second half matchup in the AFC North, among many other games.
A 17 percent return on investment since 2003 is attractive.
