Recent Insights on GLP-1 Medications and Obesity Trends
New evidence suggests that GLP-1 medications, particularly semaglutide found in well-known drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy, may be having a significant impact across the population.
Last week, EPIC Research, a health analytics firm, published two trackers based on medical records from individuals nationwide. The data reveals a rapid increase in GLP-1 prescriptions in the U.S. over recent years, aligning with a slight yet consistent decline in obesity rates. It’s still early to draw definitive conclusions, but the continued use of GLP-1s might be helping to shift the obesity landscape.
A Rise in Prescriptions, A Drop in Obesity
EPIC Systems develops software used worldwide by healthcare providers for electronic medical records. Their COSMOS dataset, built in partnership with numerous healthcare systems, captures over 300 million patient records from various hospitals and clinics in the U.S. and beyond. The associated research branch, EPIC Research, is utilizing COSMOS data to monitor various health trends, including the prevalence of GLP-1 medications.
With the latest trackers, they can now assess how many Americans receiving care in the COSMOS dataset are prescribed GLP-1s and monitor their body mass index (BMI) quarterly. The findings suggest significant changes over time.
For instance, between Q2 2021 and Q1 2026, GLP-1 prescriptions among U.S. adults surged more than fourfold, climbing from approximately 1,884 to 8,819 prescriptions per 100,000 patients. Simultaneously, the percentage of individuals classified as obese within that same dataset decreased from 42% to 41%. This reduction was even more pronounced among individuals who had previously received a GLP-1 prescription, where the obesity rate dropped from 75% to 69%.
While this data might not represent the entire U.S. population, it aligns with other findings. The CDC has estimated that from 2021 to 2023, roughly 40% of Americans fell into the obesity category, defined by a BMI of 30 or above. However, in December, the CDC noted a reduction in adult obesity rates between 2023 and 2024. Numerous studies have also pointed to an increase in Americans utilizing GLP-1 medications.
Looking Ahead
These medications appear effective for addressing obesity and associated health issues—at least for those who actually use them. The continued decline in the national obesity rate, though small, is a positive indicator. It’s worth noting that while many individuals with obesity can maintain good health, this condition is often linked to an elevated risk for various health complications, including type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and cancer.
However, the trajectory of obesity in the U.S. will hinge on several factors. Currently, around 12% of Americans are on GLP-1 medications, which is significantly less than those who qualify as obese, while about 6% have stopped using them. Reasons for discontinuation range from known gastrointestinal side effects to high costs or lack of insurance coverage for the drugs.
Recently, the out-of-pocket expenses for GLP-1 medications like Wegovy have decreased, but they can still be quite expensive without insurance, often reaching hundreds of dollars monthly. Other countries have approved more affordable generics for semaglutide, but it may take five more years for these generics to become available in the U.S.
It’s important to recognize that not everyone with obesity desires to take GLP-1 medications, and not all will find them helpful. Nevertheless, the potential for broader adoption of these drugs, along with improved versions, could eventually lead to a notable decline in obesity rates.
