The Uncertainty of Closers in Fantasy Baseball

In fantasy baseball, the closer position is notoriously the most unpredictable part of a team. While top starting pitchers and powerful hitters tend to deliver consistent returns year after year, the role of a “ninth-inning specialist” is a precarious one. As the 2026 season approaches, fantasy drafters are left to balance the enticing prospect of a solid 40-save season against the reality of frequent changes in bullpen roles.

Statistical trends reveal that relying on a closer for job security is often misguided. Data indicates that roughly half of the saves in Major League Baseball are recorded by pitchers who began the season as the designated closers for their teams.

This trend has persisted over the last couple of years. In 2025, about 50% of the top 20 ADP (average draft position) closers failed to meet draft expectations due to various factors—injuries, underperformance, midseason trades—as well as a growing number of teams opting for high-leverage committees instead of single-closer roles. This shift complicates the quest for saves early in the season.

Investing a top-50 pick on a closer like Mason Miller or Edwin Diaz in 2026 may seem like a solid move for added stability, but the opportunity costs can be significant. For instance, in 2025, a highly ranked closer like Devin Williams had only 18 saves before losing his position to teammate Luke Weaver.

Additionally, top-10 closers such as Mason Miller and Ryan Helsley sometimes switched to setup roles or were traded, further undermining their fantasy value. While there are successful cases of high picks in this area, the odds certainly feel stacked against it.

Moreover, analysis shows that the top 360 players by ADP account for around 75% of all saves by those with at least 20 saves, leaving a substantial portion of saves to be claimed off the waiver wire. For a manager who decides to wait on a closer, this could mean a league championship as a reward.

In 2025, veteran Aroldis Chapman emerged as a strong value pick, finishing the season with 32 saves and a 1.17 ERA despite a low draft cost. More players could follow this trend in 2026.

Potential late-round options for drafters looking to wait on a closer include Texas’s Robert Garcia, St. Louis’s Riley O’Brien, and perhaps Milwaukee’s Abner Uribe, who seems to have a good shot given the lack of competition in their respective bullpens. As for Houston’s Brian Abreu, it’s wise not to overlook the impact of Josh Hader’s ongoing injury issues.

As we gear up for the 2026 draft, keep in mind that saves are one category where you can truly build from the ground up during a season. If you feel you must invest a high pick, aim for “skill-first” pitchers with elite strikeout rates (35% or higher), rather than just focusing on their position. Their ratios can provide value, even if save chances vary. Otherwise, a solid strategy might be to secure one dependable arm in the middle rounds and allocate the bulk of your early capital towards securing strong hitters.