Post-prop kingpin Dave Brezow is back with his annual NFL Picks to help you win big money with big prizes on the MVP and league leaders in passing, rushing and receiving yards..
Best Player
Blezow breakdown: The MVP award is now given exclusively to quarterbacks.
Lamar Jackson received all 49 first-place votes in 2023, marking the 11th consecutive year he has received first-place votes in the passing category and 16 of the past 17 times he has received first-place votes in the passing category.
Christian McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill finished third and fifth, respectively, but are tied for 11th and 24th on the 2024 odds board.
Only three active players have won the MVP award: Aaron Rodgers (four times), Jackson (two times) and Patrick Mahomes (two times).
Josh Allen and Joe Burrow are seen as the successors, with CJ Stroud being positioned as the next big thing.
But the pick here is Mahomes, the favorite to win, and all eyes will be on the Chiefs as they try to win a historic third straight championship.
The AFC West looks weak, so the Chiefs are likely to win the division again, they have some notable non-conference road games coming up that Mahomes could play in, and the offensive line is well-equipped with Travis Kelce, Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy.
winner
Patrick Mahomes (+500)
The next man rises
Joe Burrow (+900)
Mid-range threat
CJ Stroud (10/1)
probability:
| Patrick Mahomes +500 |
| Josh Allen +850 |
| Joe Burrow +900 |
| CJ Stroud +1000 |
| Jalen Hurts +1000 |
| Jordan Love +1400 |
| Brock Purdy +1600 |
| Dak Prescott +1800 |
| Jared Goff +1800 |
| Lamar Jackson +2000 |
| Aaron Rodgers +2000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa +2500 |
| Anthony Richardson 28/1 |
| Justin Herbert 30/1 |
| Matthew Stafford 30/1 |
| Trevor Lawrence 30/1 |
| Christian McCaffrey 35/1 |
| Kirk Cousins 40/1 |
| Caleb Williams 40/1 |
| Kyler Murray 50/1 |
| Baker Mayfield 66/1 |
| Deshaun Watson 66/1 |
| Justin Jefferson 100/1 |
| Tyreek Hill 100/1 |
| Geno Smith 125/1 |
| Jamal Chase 150/1 |
| Daniel Jones 150/1 |
| Justin Fields 150/1 |
| Bryce Young 150/1 |
| Will Revis 150/1 |
| Russell Wilson 150/1 |
| C.D. Ram 200/1 |
| Puka Nacua 200/1 |
| Ryan Tannehill 200/1 |
| Micah Parsons 200/1 |
| Sam Darnold 200/1 |
| Bijan Robinson 250/1 |
| Travis Kelce 300/1 |
| Max Crosby 300/1 |
| Breece Hall 300/1 |
| Cooper Kupp 300/1 |
| Davante Adams 300/1 |
| Deebo Samuel 300/1 |
| Derrick Henry 300/1 |
| Saquon Barkley 300/1 |
| Raheem Mostert 300/1 |
| Jameel Gibbs 300/1 |
| Stefon Diggs 300/1 |
Passing Yards
Blezow breakdown: Passing yards and MVP are two different things.
Looking ahead to 2023, Tua Tagovailoa didn't receive a single MVP vote despite throwing for the most yards.
Mahomes dropped from No. 1 in 2022 to No. 6 last season, but his odds doubled to a more manageable +500.
Joe Burrow is an attractive +800 if he and Ja'Marr Chase are both healthy, but the Bengals could hit some bad weather over the final three weeks, which could drag down the numbers.
Mahomes will be a huge threat to a strong KC offense.
Houston's Stroud added Stefon Diggs and pass-catching running back Joe Mixon.
But the choice is a repeat of Tagovailoa against Tyreek Hill on a good weather day at +850.
winner
Tua Tagovailoa (+850)
Super Soft
CJ Stroud (+600)
Live Longshot
Brock Purdy (25/1)
probability:
| Patrick Mahomes +500 |
| CJ Stroud +600 |
| Dak Prescott +750 |
| Jared Goff +800 |
| Tua Tagovailoa +850 |
| Joe Burrow +850 |
| Kirk Cousins +1400 |
| Matthew Stafford +1500 |
| Jordan Love +1500 |
| Josh Allen +2000 |
| Aaron Rodgers +2500 |
| Brock Purdy +2500 |
| Trevor Lawrence +2500 |
| Caleb Williams +2500 |
| Will Revis +2500 |
| Jalen Hurts 30/1 |
| Justin Herbert 35/1 |
| Baker Mayfield 40/1 |
| Deshaun Watson 45/1 |
| Geno Smith 45/1 |
Rush Yards
Blezow breakdown: This is probably the most interesting category this season.
The legendary Derrick Henry is currently with the Ravens and is available at 10/1.
Christian McCaffrey is the overwhelming favorite to win the game with nearly 300 yards rushing, but it's hard to pay a +300 premium given his injury history.
The 49ers' offense could continue to evolve in the direction of Brock Purdy and high-priced receiver Brandon Aiyuk.
Health is also a concern for Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley and Breece Hall, who is a year removed from a knee injury.
The most intriguing player in the rehab facility is Kyren Williams, whose 95.3 yards per game is the best in the NFL.
The selection was motivated ex-Raider Josh Jacobs, who seems like a good fit for Green Bay.
winner
Josh Jacobs (15/1)
Mid-range threat
Kylen Williams (12/1)
Staying under the radar
Kenneth Williams III (30/1)
probability:
| Christian McCaffrey +300 |
| Jonathan Taylor +600 |
| Saquon Barkley +700 |
| Breeze Hall +800 |
| Derrick Henry +1000 |
| Bijan Robinson +1200 |
| Kyren Williams +1200 |
| Josh Jacobs +1500 |
| Devon Achain +2000 |
| Zamir White +2000 |
| Isaiah Pacheco +2500 |
| Nick Chubb +2500 |
| Jameel Gibbs +2500 |
| Travis Etienne +3000 |
| Kenneth Walker III +3000 |
| Joe Mixon +3000 |
| Ratchad White 35/1 |
| Alvin Kamara 40/1 |
| David Montgomery 40/1 |
| James Cook 40/1 |
Receiving Yards
Blezow breakdown: This market can also move in any direction, as receiver yardage depends heavily on the receiver's own health, the health of the quarterback, the style of offense and even whether the defense is good enough to back off the field.
For example, Justin Jefferson may be the best receiver in the NFL, but how much will his numbers be dragged down by Sam Darnold?
Can Aaron Rodgers take Garrett Wilson to a new level?
I'm already projecting Tagovailoa to finish first in passing yards, so if I'm right, Hill has a great chance to repeat as the winner.
Ja'Marr Chase at +900 is a candidate you can't miss.
But the selection was the Cowboys' CeeDee Lamb, who lost out to Hill in 2023 by just 50 yards.
winner
C.D. Lam (+700)
Great favorite
Tyreek Hill (+450)
Mid-range threat
Amon-Ra Saint Brown (11/1)
probability:
| Tyreek Hill +450 |
| C.D. Lam +700 |
| Ja'mal Chase +900 |
| Justin Jefferson +1000 |
| Amon-Ra Saint Brown +1100 |
| AJ Brown +1200 |
| Garrett Wilson +1500 |
| Drake London +1800 |
| Puka Nacua +2000 |
| DJ Moore +2000 |
| Chris Olave +2000 |
| Nico Collins +2000 |
| Michael Pittman +2000 |
| Davante Adams +2000 |
| Devonta Smith +2200 |
| Stefon Diggs +2500 |
| Brandon Aiyuk +2500 |
| Mike Evans +2500 |
| Jaylen Waddle +2500 |
| Cooper Kupp +3000 |
Other NFL bets worth placing
This prop group is 2-2 in 2023. We bet on Kyle Pitts to have under 700.5 receiving yards and the Texans to win by over 5.5.
Aaron Rodgers' ruptured Achilles caused two other bets to fall through: the Jets to win the AFC East and Garrett Wilson to score 8.5 or more receiving TDs.
The five-year record is 12-8 in the next four projections.
Do you bet on the NFL?
* Daniel Jones Passing Yards Over 2,675.5 (-120)The Giants could be missing out big time, they drafted Malik Neighbors in exchange for Jones, and Danny Dimes may be less willing to run due to a knee injury.
* Patriots Under 4.5 Wins (+110): It would be fun for fans of any team to see the Patriots get wiped out in Bill Belichick's first year as coach. The Patriots have the second-toughest schedule according to Sharp Football.
* Keon Coleman – 650.5+ yards (-115): Josh Allen will need a new favorite target with the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, and the rookie out of Florida State fits the bill.
* Chargers 8.5+ wins (-160)The Bolts lost a lot of their talent, but Jim Harbaugh will field a stronger team with Justin Herbert under his belt and a lot of win potential with the second-easiest schedule.
