Texas Republican Primary Tightens
Recent polling indicates Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a slim lead over incumbent Senator John Cornyn, leading by just 1.5 percentage points in the Republican primary.
JL Partners conducted a survey of 600 voters from January 31 to February 2. The poll revealed that 27% of respondents favored Ken Paxton, while Rep. Wesley Hunt was close behind at 25.7%, and Cornyn followed with 25.5%. Notably, 21.7% of participants remained undecided.
It’s quite unexpected that Cornyn, a long-serving senator, might find himself out of the runoff if he finishes third in this race. The stakes are really high here, especially considering that the leading two candidates will move on to a runoff election later this spring.
As mentioned in reports, while the race is exceptionally tight, any slight uptick in Cornyn’s numbers could potentially be insufficient for him to secure a spot in the runoff if no candidate crosses the 50% mark in March. The most recent figures suggest increasing competition that has been building for some time. Just two months ago, about 29% of likely primary voters supported Paxton, with both Hunt and Cornyn around 24%.
According to the rules, if none of the candidates achieve more than 50% in the primary set for March 3, the top two vote-getters will compete again on May 26.
“While various polls are emerging from all ends, this particular one stands out for its unbiased findings,” noted James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners.
Johnson also remarked, “Ken Paxton’s lead has shrunk to a single point, which indicates he could be in trouble. However, a three-way tie might still favor him.”
Interestingly, President Donald Trump has not yet declared his support for any candidate, which could shift the dynamics significantly. Before Hunt entered the race in October, it seemed to be a direct contest between Paxton and Cornyn.
JL Partners indicated that if either Cornyn or Paxton withdraws before the preliminary date, the advantage may shift toward Hunt. Furthermore, Hunt shows stronger prospects in one-on-one matchups, reportedly defeating both Paxton and Cornyn by a 44% to 34% margin.
“Although both Cornyn and Hunt are improving, it appears Hunt is gaining the most momentum. His popularity remains high, and in direct matchups, he outperforms Paxton, unlike Cornyn,” Johnson explained.
Intriguingly, Paxton’s super PAC has begun targeting Hunt, which might suggest Paxton’s team views Hunt as a greater threat than Cornyn.
With the primaries coming up in about a month, the mere possibility that Cornyn could end up in third place and possibly lose his seat raises concerns within the political landscape. Cornyn’s supporters in Washington’s Republican circles have already spent a significant amount this year to bolster his position. As it stands, it might end up being Paxton and Hunt facing off, but the future is still uncertain.
