It all comes down to Pennsylvania.
That's not an exaggeration.
If Kamala Harris loses Pennsylvania, Donald Trump will become the 47th president of the United States.
The same can be said for Michigan and Wisconsin, but Democratic candidates in particular should be able to carry keystone states.
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Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. (Getty Images)
That's why, in my opinion, Kamala should have chosen the popular governor, Josh Shapiro.
I have nothing against Tim Walz, a famous football coach, but I don't know what he did to get tickets. There's a reason the campaign hasn't granted him any solo interviews — in stark contrast to J.D. Vance, who is constantly giving interviews and press conferences.
In fact, Vance now frequently answers questions from reporters in front of his supporters, who boo the reporters and sometimes answer questions before the reporters even start speaking.
We'll find out if Walz can think on his feet when he faces off against Vance in tonight's vice presidential debate. The most generous thing I can say is that Coach will be rusty.
Gov. Tim Walz spoke to supporters at the Grand Rapids Public Museum on Sept. 12. (Detroit Free Press/Adam Vander Kooy/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
Let's take a look at the latest numbers.
The Real Clear Politics average shows Trump leading Harris by a slim margin of 48.1% to 47.9%, which is, of course, a statistical tie.
At 538, Pennsylvania's micromargins were reversed, with Harris averaging 47.9% and Trump 47.1%, also tied.
Now imagine that the running mate was Shapiro, a more moderate liberal than the ultra-progressive Walz. And let's say Shapiro receives an additional 50,000 votes as a candidate in his home state. I can see where that would tip the balance.
There are two reasons why Kamala didn't choose Josh. When she met with the governor, they had a rambunctious conversation, and the governor insisted that he would take on an influential role if he resigned from his current position. But so what? Presidents and their top officials often disagree. She preferred the image of Waltz as a hunter and fisherman to the expected pair of East Coast lawyers.
But the more important reason is even more troubling. Harris was under pressure from anti-Israel factions within her party not to nominate Shapiro, who is Jewish and a strong supporter of the Jewish state.
So the Vice President would have effectively given a veto to this minority group, which essentially supports the Hamas terrorists who want to annihilate Israel, and would have faced a week or two of controversy as a result. . I said at the time that if she lost Pennsylvania, this would be a world-class mistake.
Pro-Palestinian protesters wearing straw hats are corralled after blocking Vice President Kamala Harris in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania (Charlie Crates/Fox News)
The reason Harris spent so much time in the Pittsburgh area is because the western edge of the state is much more conservative than the eastern part, centered on Philadelphia. Her goal is to reduce Trump's lead in some of the states where he is likely to win.
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One of the problems Harris currently faces is that she hardly makes any news. She avoids tough questions and follow-up by choosing “friendly” interviewers like MSNBC's Stephanie Ruhl, who has denounced President Trump as a danger to democracy.
Visiting the Mexican border was a wise move. Not just because Trump has a huge lead on immigration, but because Harris has broken into a news cycle where images matter more than words and sought to take a harder position on the issue than Joe Biden. .
Otherwise, you just hear snippets of her stump speeches in response to questions, starting with how her mother raised her. Repetition is important in politics, but without adding a few new lines, news organizations will remain headlineless.
Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a rally in Las Vegas on Sunday, September 29, 2024. (AP Photo/Carolyn Custer)
Meanwhile, President Trump over the weekend called Harris “mentally retarded” and said that while Biden is just getting older, she was born that way. He also said Harris should be impeached and possibly prosecuted for her role in running the country.
This is typical Trump. His over-the-top rhetoric has sparked a media debate about whether he has gone too far, and the debate revolves around the words “Kamala” and “mentally ill.”
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Harris wisely did not respond to all of Trump's jabs. But remember, Trump benefits from negative coverage as much as positive coverage as he drives his news agenda.
Below is a pool report of Harris at a West Coast political event last weekend: “She then switched to speaking about the need for comprehensive immigration reform. It was very similar to what she said in “In other words, no news.
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Think about this. Trump has been thoroughly hammered by a hostile press corps, is a twice-impeached convicted felon, and carries the burden of January 6th. Harris is riding a wave of unusually positive press coverage, but has fallen slightly in the polls. and tied in Pennsylvania.
And there is no doubt that if she loses there, the election will be over.
