The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence in the U.S. might soon lead to blackouts within the nation’s largest power grid.
Regulators in Pennsylvania caution that the surge of energy-intensive facilities is outpacing the growth of new power generation. According to Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PAPUC) Chairman Stephen DeFrank, the state could face up to 13 power supply shortages each year by 2030 if more data centers connect than currently expected without the addition of new power plants.
DeFrank’s warnings stem from a recent analysis by the PAPUC, which evaluates the state’s electricity supply situation.
“Pennsylvania is at an energy crossroads,” DeFrank mentioned in a press release. “While data center growth could offer significant benefits, it shouldn’t come at the cost of the dependability that families and businesses rely on for affordable electricity.”
The study commissioned by PAPUC indicates that data centers are significantly contributing to the tightening of power supplies across PJM Interconnection, the largest regional transmission organization in the U.S. The report, prepared by Synapse Energy Economics among other consultants, highlights the rising electricity demand resulting from the closure of older plants and the sluggish ramp-up of new generation capabilities.
In this analysis, various possible scenarios for the grid were modeled. Its baseline scenario, utilizing PJM’s 2026 demand forecasts, projects around 5.9 instances over a decade where electricity supply could fail to meet demand by 2030. Researchers attribute this rise mainly to the anticipated large electricity demand from data centers.
This issue was experienced first-hand during the summer of 2026. PJM had to implement emergency measures to prevent widespread blackouts amidst a heatwave when electricity usage peaked, although they managed to avoid rolling blackouts.
If the demand for electricity grows even faster while there are fewer new power sources, the analysis suggests that the grid could encounter shortages exceeding 13 times a year. In contrast, a situation where no new data centers join PJM after 2027 would lead to estimated shortages only once every two decades.
On July 2, 2026, PJM’s electricity demand hit a record of approximately 168,158 megawatts, calculated after accounting for customers incentivized to reduce usage.
The Department of Energy (DOE) also issued emergency measures in late June and again in July to mitigate blackout risks in the Mid-Atlantic. These orders enabled PJM to activate more power plants and backup generators as demand surged during the intense heat.
Notably, the risk of electricity shortages is set to increase significantly from 2029 to 2030. The report estimates that, under the baseline conditions, the risk could triple, and under a high-demand scenario, it could multiply by 48 times.
This concern isn’t limited to Pennsylvania alone. The state is part of PJM, which serves around 67 million people across 13 states plus Washington, D.C. The entire system is facing increased electricity demand predominantly fueled by data centers. PJM forecasts an additional 32 gigawatts of peak demand by 2030, with around 30 gigawatts, or approximately 94%, attributable to data centers.
PJM had not provided an immediate comment on these concerns.
In August, PJM cautioned that large electricity users could keep raising their demand through 2038, despite the fact that around 15 gigawatts of power-plant capacity has shut down since 2022.
The rise of artificial intelligence is expected to significantly boost the demand for natural gas as well. Projections indicate that American data centers might use an additional 15 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day for electricity generation by 2035.
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation has also raised alarms that electricity demand is exceeding supply in various regions as data centers and other major consumers connect to the grid.
PJM’s latest capacity auction revealed a shortfall in securing enough generation to meet its reliability requirements, falling short by 6,831 megawatts, as announced by the grid operator in August.
