The Department of Defense (DOD) suggests that Iran’s nuclear program has regressed by at least a year following recent bombings of three significant nuclear sites last month.
During a press briefing on Wednesday, Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell informed the media that internal intelligence reviews indicated a substantial decline in Iran’s nuclear capabilities, estimating a timeframe of “a year or two.” He added, “It feels like we’re approaching two years. We believe we’ve impacted the program enough to set it back significantly.”
Parnell went on to explain, “We have reason to believe that the intelligence we gathered suggests that the critical facilities in Iran have been effectively destroyed.”
This assessment aligns with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s evaluation regarding the damage inflicted on these target sites.
An early analysis from Pentagon intelligence reportedly assessed that Tehran’s nuclear efforts had only resumed after a few months. Hegseth proposed early leak evaluations based on this information.
The U.S. military conducted strikes against Iran on June 21, with more than a week of coordinated attacks involving both Tehran and Israel.
President Trump has consistently asserted that these military actions dismantled Iran’s nuclear ambitions. “It was obliterated like never before. This effectively halted their nuclear pursuits for at least some time,” Trump stated during an interview on Fox News’s Sunday Morning Futures.
While the President indicated a willingness to revisit nuclear negotiations with Iran, he also mentioned that there isn’t an immediate need for a deal to limit Tehran’s nuclear enrichment. He hinted that further U.S. strikes might be considered if new threats from Iran arise.
In an interview on Sunday, Rafael Grossi, the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), noted that Iran could potentially resume uranium enrichment “within a month of a problem.”
There’s also uncertainty regarding whether the U.S. has successfully eliminated existing stockpiles of enriched uranium. Even with such nuclear materials gone, Iran would still need to develop weapons and delivery methods. Prior to the strikes, experts and U.S. intelligence assessed that this could take over two years.
Last Thursday, Grossi mentioned that Iran’s nuclear facility had sustained “significant damage” from the recent attack.
He remarked, “I think calling it ‘disappearance’ is too much, but it has caused considerable harm. There’s definitely a lot of debate about how extensive that destruction has been.”
