Taylor Swift will appear in Chiefs red at the Super Bowl on Sunday, but by the end of the night, she won’t be singing some of her saddest lyrics in her 2020 song “Exile.” I believe it will be the 49ers and their fans.
I think I’ve seen this movie before
And I didn’t like the ending.
When the Chiefs and 49ers meet Sunday night at Allegiant Stadium, it will be the eighth Super Bowl rematch.
Only twice have the team that lost the first matchup won the second matchup.
The first was the Redskins, who followed Miami’s undefeated run with a 14-7 loss in 1973 before defeating the Dolphins 27-17 in 1983 (Roman numerals are over, so each Super Bowl is held ). 1972 season.
Back then, the teams were almost completely different.
The other was in 2018 when the Eagles defeated the Patriots 41-33. It was 13 years after the Patriots beat the Donovan-McNabb-Terrell-Owens Eagles, and Tom Brady was in both games.
The Patriots played the Rams twice in the Super Bowl and won both times. In 2002, they defeated St. Louis’ Greatest Show on Turf, 20-17, and in 2019, they defeated Los Angeles, 13-3. Even though 17 years have passed, Brady was the winning quarterback in both games.
The other four instances are closer to the current one, with quick rematches. The Chiefs defeated the 49ers 31-20 in Miami in 2020. The Andy Reid vs. Kyle Shanahan coaching showdown remains, Patrick Mahomes is still the Chiefs’ quarterback, and quite a few key players return for the sequel.
I heard analysis from 49ers supporters that while the Chiefs lost Tyreek Hill in that game, the 49ers added Christian McCaffrey and got a huge upgrade at quarterback in Brock Purdy instead of Jimmy Garoppolo. .
While that may be true, the 49ers have a lot of ground to cover on the scoreboard. They need to win by three points to cover the two-point favorite. Against good teams, he has a 14 point difference between the two results. And as I said earlier, that would go against history.
* In 1976, Terry Bradshaw and the Steel Curtain Steelers defeated the Cowboys, 21-17, and again in 1979, by a score of 35-31. (Dallas beat Pittsburgh in the third edition in 1996, but that is not part of this discussion).
* In 1982, Joe Montana’s 49ers defeated the Bengals, 26-21, and in 1989, Montana found John Candy to lead the 49ers to a 20-16 win over Cincinnati.
* Troy Aikman’s Cowboys defeated the Bills in back-to-back Super Bowls, 52-17 in 1993 and 30-13 in 1994.
* Eli Manning and the Giants defeated Brady and the Patriots twice in a short period of time. Big Blue ended New England’s undefeated streak 17-14 in 2008 with the help of David Tyree’s helmet catch, and won again in 2012, 21-17.
These examples don’t prove anything, but they promote the idea that it’s easier for the winners to keep winning than for the losers of the event to overturn the outcome. Sports bettors often prefer to side with the “revenge” team, but that doesn’t always work out.
Sports movies depict that great moments begin with adversity, but not every experience is a good one. Take Shanahan, for example: Not only has he already lost to Reid in the Super Bowl as a head coach, but he also lost to Reid in the Super Bowl in 2017, when the Falcons blew a 28-3 lead at halftime to the Patriots and 34-28 in overtime. He was also the offensive coordinator for the Falcons when they lost. .
Good experience also seems important for a quarterback. By my count, there have been 19 Super Bowls in which a starting quarterback faced a first-time starter. That’s the situation for Sunday’s Mahomes vs. Purdy game. Of these, “winners” won 13 and “start-ups” won 6. Here’s a quick list.
*Winner: Bart Starr, Darryl Lamonica. Bob Gries against Fran Tarkenton. Terry Bradshaw on Vince Ferragamo. Joe Montana against Dan Marino. Montana vs. Boomer Esiason. Troy Aikman vs. Neil O’Donnell. John Elway beats Chris Chandler. Tom Brady vs. Jake Delhomme. Brady over McNabb. Peyton Manning vs. Cam Newton. Brady vs. Matt Ryan. Brady is better than Jared Goff. Mahomes vs. Jalen Hurts.
*Upstart wins: Brady beats Kurt Warner. Eli Manning vs. Brady. Drew Brees defeated Peyton Manning. Aaron Rodgers vs. Ben Roethlisberger. Russell Wilson vs. Peyton Manning. Nick Foles beats Brady.
So, what will happen in this matchup?
The Chiefs emerge as the more battle-tested team. They have played three games this playoffs, with three wins against the spread at Arrowhead against the Dolphins (26-7) and on the road against the Bills (27-24) and Ravens (17-10). They have 0 losses. They were 2.5 times worse against Buffalo and 4.5 times worse against Baltimore. I was on the wrong team in both games and I’m not going to give any more points to the Chiefs.
The 49ers needed to win two home games to advance to Las Vegas. The Packers trailed 21-14 in the fourth quarter, but they rallied and won 24-21. The 49ers then trailed 24-7 to the Lions in the first half, but came back 34-31 after Detroit coach Dan Campbell denied two potential field goal attempts. I won. San Francisco is also 0-2 ATS in the playoffs.
Of the five games listed above, I think the Super Bowl will play out the most like the Chiefs vs. Ravens game, but with a slightly higher score. In the 49ers’ two games, the Packers and Lions addressed this issue offensively, scoring several touchdowns and pushing the scorers in a 49ers comeback. The same goes for the Chiefs-Bills game.
But the 49ers-Chiefs have two teams with great defensive chops. In the regular season, the Chiefs ranked second in yards allowed (fourth in passing yards allowed) and second in points allowed. The 49ers likely know their only weakness is running away and have a game plan that focuses on putting McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel on the ground.
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The 49ers ranked eighth in yards allowed and third in points allowed. They’re better against the run than they are against the pass, and Mahomes should have a chance to find Travis Kelce, dump the ball to Isaiah Pacheco, and scramble a few times himself. This will take time for both sides, and it will be more like a chess match than a Wild West shootout.
One last note about spreads. The spread is small so it probably won’t affect ATS winners. But the fact that the Chiefs are a team that has recently been to two Super Bowl rings, and they’ve already beaten this opponent and won the championship, they’re on the back foot is an intangible that Reid can work with. It is.
Designated player: Chiefs +2. Less than 47.5.
Chiefs, 24 wins, 20 losses.
Championship week: Total: 3 wins, 1 loss (side 1 win, 1 loss, over/under 2 wins, 0 losses).
This week’s lock: Chiefs (2023, Rocks 7-13-1 including playoffs).
